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Ligue 1
Referee: E Wattellier
Lyon
S S T T U
1–1
Full-time
Paris FC
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Paris FC
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 42%
58%
25%
Points per game
1,9
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
54%
54%
Both score Ø 52%
46%
58%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,6
1,2
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,85 xG 1,77
62% Possession 38%
14 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 4. · Paris FC 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 +32 +29.3 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 +27 +18.3 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 +19 +10.3 46
4 Lyon 24 14 3 7 +13 +7.7 45
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 +7 -1.3 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 +6 +9.6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 +6 +5.9 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 +9 +8.7 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 +0 +0.3 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 -4 -1.5 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 -7 -15.8 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 +4 +3.6 31
13 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 -12 -12.3 26
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 -12 -10.3 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 -18 -10.2 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 -16 -7.7 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 -20 -12.8 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 -34 -21.8 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Oct -25 Paris FC – Lyon 3–3

Match report

Lyon Paris FC
Tyler Morton 🟨
27′
Half-time 0–0
Nicolás Tagliafico 🟨
50′
C. Tolisso 🔁
↦ K. Merah
58′
R. Yaremchuk 🔁
↦ N. Tagliafico
58′
63′
M. Munetsi 0–1
64′
ℹ️ Marshall Munetsi
VAR: Goal confirmed
Endrick 🔁
↦ A. Karabec
65′
N. Nartey 🔁
↦ T. Tessmann
65′
73′
🔁 C. Immobile
↦ J. Ikone
73′
🔁 A. Gory
↦ M. Simon
73′
🔁 L. Koleosho
↦ J. Krasso
A. Hamdani 🔁
↦ R. Himbert
82′
87′
🔁 V. Marchetti
↦ R. Matondo
1–1 C. Tolisso
90′
91′
🔁 T. Ollila
↦ M. Munetsi
Adil Hamdani ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
94′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lyon

4-1-4-1
1 D. Greif G
33 H. Hateboer D
22 C. Mata D
19 M. Niakhate D
3 N. Tagliafico D
23 T. Morton M
7 A. Karabec M
6 T. Tessmann M
44 K. Merah M
16 Abner Vinicius M
45 R. Himbert F
Bench (9)
40 R. Descamps
18 R. Ghezzal
8 C. Tolisso
77 R. Yaremchuk
9 Endrick
34 A. Hamdani
5 O. Mangala
99 N. Nartey
38 S. Kango

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Paris FC

4-3-3
35 K. Trapp G
17 A. Camara D
42 D. Coppola D
5 M. Mbow D
19 N. Sangui D
18 M. Munetsi M
33 P. Lees-Melou M
23 R. Matondo M
93 J. Ikone F
11 J. Krasso F
27 M. Simon F
Bench (9)
16 O. Nkambadio
15 T. Kolodziejczak
36 C. Immobile
2 T. Ollila
4 V. Marchetti
13 M. Cafaro
7 A. Gory
9 W. Geubbels
24 L. Koleosho

Coach: Antoine Kombouare

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,64
U ✓
3,86
B
4,97
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
1,95
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Wattellier · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.