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Ligue 1

Referee: A Gautier

Brest

T U U U T

2–0

Full-time

Metz

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

33% Possession 67%

7 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 18. · Metz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	0	2	+13	21
2	Nantes	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Angers	9	5	1	3	+1	16
4	Lille	8	4	2	2	+4	14
5	Nice	8	4	1	3	+0	13
6	Marseille	9	3	4	2	-1	13
7	Bordeaux	8	3	3	2	+3	12
8	Rennes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Reims	8	3	2	3	+3	11
10	Montpellier	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Amiens	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Lyon	8	2	3	3	+6	9
13	Monaco	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Strasbourg	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Toulouse	8	2	3	3	-4	9
16	Nimes	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Brest	8	1	5	2	-5	8
19	St Etienne	8	2	2	4	-6	8
20	Dijon	8	1	2	5	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Angers	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Lille	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Nantes	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Montpellier	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Strasbourg	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Nice	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Amiens	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Nimes	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Brest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Reims	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Lyon	4	1	1	2	+4	4
17	Metz	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Rennes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
19	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+3	9
2	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
3	Marseille	5	2	2	1	+0	8
4	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Reims	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	Nantes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Nice	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	St Etienne	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Metz	4	1	1	2	-4	4
12	Dijon	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Toulouse	5	0	3	2	-5	3
14	Angers	4	1	0	3	-9	3
15	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Monaco	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Lille	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Nimes	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Brest	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Strasbourg	3	0	1	2	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.