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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Metz

T T T T S

2–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

29%

Both score Ø 29%

29%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 16. · Toulouse 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	0	2	+9	18
2	Nantes	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Angers	7	5	0	2	+5	15
4	Lille	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Bordeaux	8	3	3	2	+3	12
6	Marseille	7	3	3	1	+1	12
7	Nice	7	4	0	3	+0	12
8	Reims	7	3	2	2	+4	11
9	Rennes	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Montpellier	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	Lyon	8	2	3	3	+6	9
12	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Brest	7	1	5	1	-2	8
14	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Amiens	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Metz	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Strasbourg	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Monaco	7	1	3	3	-5	6
19	St Etienne	7	1	2	4	-7	5
20	Dijon	7	0	2	5	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Angers	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Lille	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Nantes	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Montpellier	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Nimes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Nice	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Brest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Reims	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Strasbourg	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Lyon	4	1	1	2	+4	4
14	Rennes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Marseille	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Amiens	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Metz	3	1	0	2	+0	3
19	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+3	9
2	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Reims	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	Nantes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Nice	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+2	5
9	Metz	4	1	1	2	-4	4
10	Amiens	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Angers	3	1	0	2	-5	3
12	St Etienne	4	1	0	3	-6	3
13	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Brest	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	Monaco	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Nimes	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Toulouse	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Lille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Strasbourg	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.