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Premier League

Referee: D Bond

Brentford

S T S U T

3–2

Full-time

Bournemouth

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

80%

40%

Both score Ø 75%

90%

60%

Average goals

3,9

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,48 xG 2,61

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 9

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 12. · Bournemouth 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.6	25
2	Man City	10	7	2	1	+10	+9.0	23
3	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.3	19
4	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+8	+4.7	18
5	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.1	18
6	Aston Villa	10	5	3	2	+2	+3.9	18
7	Tottenham	10	5	1	4	+11	+8.6	16
8	Brighton	10	4	4	2	+3	-1.9	16
9	Fulham	10	4	3	3	+1	+4.1	15
10	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+1	+3.0	15
11	Newcastle	10	4	3	3	+0	+0.6	15
12	Brentford	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.5	13
13	Man United	10	3	3	4	-3	+0.3	12
14	West Ham	10	3	2	5	-6	-2.7	11
15	Leicester	10	2	4	4	-4	-9.2	10
16	Everton	10	2	3	5	-7	-4.0	9
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-5	-2.1	7
18	Ipswich	10	0	5	5	-11	-14.5	5
19	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-12	-10.3	4
20	Wolves	10	0	3	7	-13	-9.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.0	13
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
3	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+11	+5.8	12
4	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+6	+5.4	12
5	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.6	11
6	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.0	10
7	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+2	+3.6	10
8	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.1	10
9	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.9	9
10	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+3	+2.7	8
11	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.5	8
12	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
13	Man United	5	2	1	2	-4	-0.7	7
14	West Ham	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.6	6
15	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
16	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
18	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
19	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-4	-3.4	3
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.2	13
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+7	-1.8	10
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.5	10
5	Aston Villa	5	3	1	1	+1	-0.4	10
6	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.9	7
7	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.5	7
8	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
9	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.5	5
10	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.2	5
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.5	5
12	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.9	5
13	West Ham	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.3	5
14	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
15	Everton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.9	4
16	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.0	2
17	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
18	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
19	Brentford	5	0	0	5	-7	-7.5	0
20	Southampton	5	0	0	5	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.