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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Montpellier

U U T T T

3–2

Full-time

Auxerre

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Auxerre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

3,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-2,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 1,27

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Auxerre 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+13	+10.2	13
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+8	+6.9	13
3	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	+1.8	10
4	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.8	9
5	Reims	5	2	2	1	+0	-6.0	8
6	Nice	5	2	1	2	+8	+5.7	7
7	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.5	7
8	Nantes	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.7	7
9	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.6	7
10	Strasbourg	5	1	3	1	+1	+0.8	6
11	Le Havre	5	2	0	3	-3	-1.7	6
12	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.2	5
13	Lyon	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
14	Brest	4	1	0	3	-4	-2.1	3
15	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.2	3
16	St Etienne	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.1	3
17	Angers	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.3	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-11	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.8	7
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.7	7
3	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.1	6
4	Nice	2	1	1	0	+8	+4.7	4
5	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
6	Strasbourg	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
7	Lens	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
8	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.4	4
9	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
10	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.7	4
11	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.3	3
12	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
13	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
14	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.5	3
15	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
16	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
17	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
18	Angers	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	+5.1	7
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.2	6
4	Lens	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
5	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
6	Reims	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.3	4
7	Lille	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.0	3
8	Nice	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.0	3
9	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
10	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
11	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
12	Angers	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
14	Rennes	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.0	0
17	Montpellier	2	0	0	2	-9	-4.1	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-13	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.