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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lyon

T T T S U

2–3

Full-time

Marseille

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

25%

75%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,01 xG 0,79

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 14. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+13	+10.2	13
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+8	+6.9	13
3	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	+1.8	10
4	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.8	9
5	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+3	+0.4	8
6	Reims	5	2	2	1	+0	-6.0	8
7	Nice	5	2	1	2	+8	+5.7	7
8	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.5	7
9	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.6	7
10	Strasbourg	5	1	3	1	+1	+0.8	6
11	Brest	5	2	0	3	-2	-4.5	6
12	Le Havre	5	2	0	3	-3	-1.7	6
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	+4.5	5
14	Lyon	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
15	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-10	-3.4	4
16	Auxerre	5	1	0	4	-7	-5.0	3
17	St Etienne	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.1	3
18	Angers	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.8	7
2	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.7	7
3	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.1	6
4	Brest	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
5	Nice	2	1	1	0	+8	+4.7	4
6	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
7	Strasbourg	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
8	Lens	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
9	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.4	4
10	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
11	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.7	4
12	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.7	4
13	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.3	3
14	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
15	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.5	3
16	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
17	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
18	Angers	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	+5.1	7
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.2	6
4	Nantes	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
5	Lens	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
6	Reims	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.3	4
7	Lille	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.0	3
8	Nice	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.0	3
9	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
10	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
11	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.0	1
12	Angers	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
14	Rennes	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.0	0
16	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.3	0
17	Montpellier	2	0	0	2	-9	-4.1	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-13	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.