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Pro League

Referee: W De Cremer

Genk

U T S S S

4–0

Full-time

Dender

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genk Dender

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 55%

60%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

60%

83%

Both score Ø 72%

60%

83%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,34 xG 0,42

63% Possession 37%

28 Shots 5

13 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genk 4. · Dender 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Charleroi	7	4	1	2	+6	+4.7	13
2	Dender	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.9	11
3	Club Brugge	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.1	10
4	Genk	5	3	1	1	+1	+8.3	10
5	Antwerp	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.4	9
6	Gent	5	3	0	2	+4	-0.6	9
7	Anderlecht	5	2	3	0	+3	+2.8	9
8	St. Gilloise	6	2	3	1	+2	+4.3	9
9	Standard	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.9	8
10	Westerlo	6	2	1	3	-1	+0.5	7
11	Mechelen	5	2	1	2	-1	-1.3	7
12	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5	1	3	1	+1	+0.9	6
13	St Truiden	6	1	2	3	-8	-5.2	5
14	Kortrijk	5	1	0	4	-7	-1.7	3
15	Beerschot VA	6	0	1	5	-8	-7.1	1
16	Cercle Brugge	5	0	1	4	-9	-10.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Charleroi	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.7	9
2	Standard	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.0	7
3	Gent	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.4	6
4	Westerlo	3	2	0	1	+3	+3.6	6
5	St. Gilloise	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.0	6
6	Anderlecht	4	1	3	0	+1	+2.1	6
7	St Truiden	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.4	5
8	Club Brugge	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.0	4
9	Dender	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.5	4
10	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.5	4
11	Genk	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.8	4
12	Antwerp	2	1	0	1	+4	+1.2	3
13	Mechelen	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Kortrijk	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.4	3
15	Beerschot VA	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.3	1
16	Cercle Brugge	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dender	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.4	7
2	Club Brugge	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.2	6
3	Antwerp	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.2	6
4	Genk	3	2	0	1	+0	+5.5	6
5	Charleroi	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.0	4
6	Mechelen	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
7	Anderlecht	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
8	Gent	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.9	3
9	St. Gilloise	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.3	3
10	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.4	2
11	Standard	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.9	1
12	Westerlo	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
13	Cercle Brugge	4	0	1	3	-8	-6.3	1
14	Kortrijk	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
15	Beerschot VA	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
16	St Truiden	2	0	0	2	-6	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.