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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Gil Vicente

T S U U U

1–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,88 xG 1,29

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 24

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 11. · Casa Pia 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+17	+13.6	15
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+9	+9.1	15
3	Santa Clara	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.2	12
4	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+1	+3.4	12
5	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.3	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.2	11
7	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.5	10
8	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.9	8
9	AVS	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.8	7
10	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
11	Gil Vicente	5	1	3	1	-1	-1.2	6
12	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.1	6
13	Estoril	6	1	3	2	-3	-7.5	6
14	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-1	+1.5	5
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	-0.7	4
16	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.6	3
17	Estrela	6	0	2	4	-6	-5.7	2
18	Farense	5	0	0	5	-10	-9.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.0	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+9.8	9
3	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
4	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
5	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
6	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.0	6
7	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.2	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
9	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.0	4
11	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.2	4
12	Estoril	3	1	1	1	-2	-4.8	4
13	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
14	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
15	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
16	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
17	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.2	1
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+13	+8.5	9
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
4	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
7	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.1	3
9	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.2	3
10	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Gil Vicente	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.2	2
12	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
13	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.0	1
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
17	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
18	Rio Ave	3	0	0	3	-5	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.