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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Strasbourg

U U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,38 xG 0,31

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 10. · Toulouse 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.5	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.2	7
3	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.2	6
4	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+7.2	5
5	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
6	Montpellier	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
7	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
8	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.7	4
9	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.0	3
11	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
12	Lorient	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.0	2
13	Le Havre	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.2	2
14	Lens	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.3	1
15	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
16	Metz	2	0	1	1	-4	-5.4	1
17	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.1	0
18	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
2	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+4	+6.7	4
3	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
4	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.5	3
5	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
6	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
7	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
8	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
9	Montpellier	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Metz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
11	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
12	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
13	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
14	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
15	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
2	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
4	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
5	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
6	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
7	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
8	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
9	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
11	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Reims	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
13	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
14	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
15	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
16	Lens	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.9	0
17	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.5	0
18	Metz	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.