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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj Salem

Paris FC

U T U T U

1–0

Full-time

Nice

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

22%

26%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 63%

61%

65%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,23 xG 1,24

40% Possession 60%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

6 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris FC 15. · Nice 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	18	3	3	+34	+29.0	57
2	Lens	24	17	2	5	+24	+15.9	53
3	Lyon	23	14	3	6	+14	+8.6	45
4	Marseille	23	12	4	7	+17	+9.2	40
5	Rennes	24	11	7	6	+3	-1.2	40
6	Lille	23	11	4	8	+5	+9.0	37
7	Monaco	24	11	4	9	+4	+6.2	37
8	Strasbourg	24	10	5	9	+9	+8.4	35
9	Lorient	23	8	8	7	-4	-1.0	32
10	Toulouse	24	8	7	9	+5	+3.8	31
11	Brest	23	8	6	9	-3	+0.8	30
12	Angers	24	8	5	11	-8	-15.6	29
13	Le Havre	24	6	8	10	-10	-10.1	26
14	Nice	23	6	6	11	-13	-10.3	24
15	Paris FC	23	5	8	10	-13	-12.3	23
16	Auxerre	23	4	5	14	-16	-7.6	17
17	Nantes	23	4	5	14	-18	-12.5	17
18	Metz	23	3	4	16	-30	-20.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	10	1	0	+26	+16.2	31
2	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
3	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
4	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+8	+8.1	25
5	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+16	+8.2	24
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
7	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.9	23
8	Lorient	11	6	4	1	+6	+4.8	22
9	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
10	Lille	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.7	20
11	Angers	12	6	2	4	+3	-3.6	20
12	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
13	Toulouse	12	4	5	3	+4	+5.5	17
14	Nice	12	4	5	3	+0	-0.6	17
15	Auxerre	12	3	2	7	-5	+1.5	11
16	Paris FC	11	2	4	5	-8	-3.9	10
17	Metz	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	12	2	2	8	-10	-6.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	12	7	2	3	+9	+3.2	23
3	Lyon	12	5	3	4	+2	-1.1	18
4	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
5	Marseille	12	5	1	6	+1	+0.9	16
6	Rennes	12	4	4	4	-8	-7.8	16
7	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
8	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
9	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.6	12
10	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-4	-1.8	12
11	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-10	-5.7	10
12	Brest	11	2	3	6	-8	-7.9	9
13	Nantes	11	2	3	6	-8	-5.7	9
14	Angers	12	2	3	7	-11	-12.0	9
15	Nice	11	2	1	8	-13	-9.7	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	3	7	-11	-9.1	6
17	Le Havre	11	1	3	7	-13	-12.5	6
18	Metz	12	1	1	10	-22	-16.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.