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2. Bundesliga

Referee: P Alt

Hertha

U S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Nurnberg

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

48%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

39%

65%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,86 xG 0,88

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hertha 7. · Nurnberg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	24	14	5	5	+13	+10.0	47
2	Paderborn	24	14	4	6	+13	+13.1	46
3	Darmstadt	24	12	9	3	+17	+7.3	45
4	Elversberg	24	13	6	5	+17	+1.9	45
5	Hannover	24	13	6	5	+12	+11.1	45
6	Kaiserslautern	24	11	4	9	+5	-1.2	37
7	Hertha	23	9	7	7	+4	-6.3	34
8	Nurnberg	23	8	6	9	-2	+1.5	30
9	Karlsruhe	23	8	6	9	-9	-15.0	30
10	Bochum	24	7	8	9	+2	+5.5	29
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	8	4	12	-11	-2.3	28
12	Bielefeld	24	7	6	11	+3	+0.9	27
13	Dresden	24	6	7	11	-6	-0.1	25
14	Holstein Kiel	24	6	7	11	-6	-12.8	25
15	Braunschweig	23	7	4	12	-14	-1.2	25
16	Preußen Münster	23	5	8	10	-8	-7.9	23
17	Magdeburg	23	7	2	14	-10	+3.9	23
18	Greuther Furth	24	6	5	13	-20	-8.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	12	9	3	0	+17	+8.7	30
2	Schalke 04	11	8	2	1	+8	+4.8	26
3	Kaiserslautern	13	8	1	4	+10	+0.3	25
4	Paderborn	12	8	1	3	+7	+8.4	25
5	Elversberg	11	6	4	1	+9	+1.4	22
6	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
7	Hannover	11	6	2	3	+4	+8.5	20
8	Karlsruhe	11	6	2	3	+2	-6.6	20
9	Bochum	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.0	19
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	5	3	5	-4	-0.4	18
11	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+7.7	17
12	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	-1.8	16
13	Holstein Kiel	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.8	15
14	Preußen Münster	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.7	15
15	Braunschweig	12	4	3	5	-7	+2.2	15
16	Greuther Furth	12	3	4	5	-9	-4.5	13
17	Dresden	12	3	3	6	-1	+3.7	12
18	Magdeburg	11	2	1	8	-8	+3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	13	7	4	2	+8	+2.6	25
2	Elversberg	13	7	2	4	+8	+0.4	23
3	Paderborn	12	6	3	3	+6	+4.7	21
4	Schalke 04	13	6	3	4	+5	+5.2	21
5	Hertha	11	5	3	3	+6	-4.5	18
6	Magdeburg	12	5	1	6	-2	+0.4	16
7	Darmstadt	12	3	6	3	+0	-1.3	15
8	Dresden	12	3	4	5	-5	-3.8	13
9	Kaiserslautern	11	3	3	5	-5	-1.5	12
10	Bochum	12	2	4	6	-3	-3.5	10
11	Bielefeld	12	2	4	6	-4	-6.8	10
12	Holstein Kiel	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.0	10
13	Braunschweig	11	3	1	7	-7	-3.4	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.0	10
15	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
16	Karlsruhe	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.4	10
17	Preußen Münster	11	2	2	7	-8	-6.2	8
18	Nurnberg	11	2	2	7	-8	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.