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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Roma

U T S U S

3–3

Full-time

Juventus

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,3

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 56%

62%

50%

Points per game

1,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

27%

46%

Both score Ø 39%

27%

50%

Average goals

1,9

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,65 xG 1,36

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 4. · Juventus 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	27	22	1	4	+43	+34.4	67
2	Milan	27	16	9	2	+23	+16.8	57
3	Napoli	27	16	5	6	+13	+8.7	53
4	Roma	26	16	2	8	+18	+10.3	50
5	Como	27	13	9	5	+24	+19.7	48
6	Juventus	26	13	7	6	+18	+22.9	46
7	Atalanta	27	12	9	6	+13	+10.9	45
8	Sassuolo	27	11	5	11	-2	-9.3	38
9	Bologna	26	10	6	10	+3	+0.3	36
10	Lazio	27	8	10	9	-1	-7.9	34
11	Parma	27	8	9	10	-12	-14.6	33
12	Udinese	26	9	5	12	-11	-7.3	32
13	Cagliari	27	7	9	11	-7	-13.5	30
14	Torino	27	8	6	13	-20	-10.3	30
15	Genoa	27	6	9	12	-7	-2.1	27
16	Fiorentina	26	5	9	12	-9	+5.2	24
17	Cremonese	27	5	9	13	-17	-18.8	24
18	Lecce	27	6	6	15	-18	-20.4	24
19	Pisa	26	1	12	13	-23	-15.3	15
20	Verona	27	2	9	16	-28	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	1	2	+26	+21.5	34
2	Roma	13	9	1	3	+13	+9.4	28
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+11	+13.1	28
4	Napoli	12	8	4	0	+10	+1.2	28
5	Como	14	7	5	2	+14	+14.6	26
6	Juventus	13	7	5	1	+13	+14.4	26
7	Milan	13	7	4	2	+7	+10.8	25
8	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.5	20
9	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
10	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-1	+3.2	17
11	Torino	14	5	2	7	-7	-5.9	17
12	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	+0	-4.8	16
13	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-1	+0.7	16
14	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-0.5	16
15	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
16	Fiorentina	13	3	4	6	-1	+7.4	13
17	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.0	13
18	Cremonese	13	2	6	5	-6	-4.2	12
19	Verona	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.4	7
20	Pisa	13	1	4	8	-12	-5.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+17	+12.9	33
2	Milan	14	9	5	0	+16	+6.0	32
3	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
4	Como	13	6	4	3	+10	+5.1	22
5	Roma	13	7	1	5	+5	+0.9	22
6	Juventus	13	6	2	5	+5	+8.6	20
7	Bologna	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
8	Parma	13	5	4	4	-4	-6.9	19
9	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
10	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+2	-2.2	17
11	Udinese	13	5	1	7	-6	-6.8	16
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-7	-8.7	14
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-13	-4.5	13
15	Cremonese	14	3	3	8	-11	-14.6	12
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.8	11
17	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
18	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-9	-16.4	11
19	Pisa	13	0	8	5	-11	-10.1	8
20	Verona	14	1	5	8	-19	-7.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.