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Ekstraklasa

Referee: B Frankowski

Lech Poznan

S S S S S

4–3

Full-time

Rakow

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 43%

41%

45%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

68%

45%

Both score Ø 59%

68%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,77 xG 1,93

54% Possession 46%

24 Shots 14

11 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 3. · Rakow 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	22	10	8	4	+13	-1.0	38
2	Zaglebie	22	9	8	5	+8	-1.3	35
3	Lech Poznan	22	9	8	5	+5	+15.2	35
4	Rakow	22	10	4	8	+3	+6.0	34
5	Gornik Zabrze	23	10	4	9	+2	-4.0	34
6	Wisla Plock	22	8	9	5	+6	+2.2	33
7	Cracovia	23	8	9	6	+4	+3.1	33
8	Lechia Gdansk	23	9	6	8	+1	+2.2	33
9	Pogon Szczecin	23	9	4	10	-2	+10.2	31
10	Korona Kielce	23	8	6	9	+1	-4.1	30
11	GKS Katowice	22	9	3	10	-1	-6.6	30
12	Motor Lublin	23	7	9	7	-5	-6.6	30
13	Radomiak Radom	22	7	8	7	+3	+0.4	29
14	Piast Gliwice	23	8	5	10	-2	-7.0	29
15	Arka Gdynia	22	7	5	10	-17	-7.7	26
16	Legia	23	5	10	8	-2	-0.1	25
17	Widzew Lodz	23	7	3	13	-4	+5.0	24
18	Nieciecza	23	5	7	11	-13	-5.9	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arka Gdynia	12	7	4	1	+5	-3.6	25
2	Wisla Plock	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.6	24
3	Pogon Szczecin	12	7	2	3	+8	+9.0	23
4	Gornik Zabrze	12	7	1	4	+9	+2.5	22
5	Radomiak Radom	10	6	2	2	+13	+6.9	20
6	Zaglebie	11	5	5	1	+11	+2.9	20
7	Jagiellonia	10	6	2	2	+10	+2.9	20
8	GKS Katowice	12	6	2	4	+3	-1.7	20
9	Lechia Gdansk	11	5	3	3	+7	+2.8	18
10	Motor Lublin	12	4	6	2	+3	+1.1	18
11	Cracovia	11	4	5	2	+4	+5.7	17
12	Legia	11	4	4	3	+4	+1.3	16
13	Lech Poznan	11	4	4	3	+2	+9.9	16
14	Widzew Lodz	11	4	3	4	+1	+3.0	15
15	Piast Gliwice	11	4	3	4	+1	-0.6	15
16	Rakow	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.4	15
17	Korona Kielce	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.8	14
18	Nieciecza	12	2	4	6	-8	-3.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	11	6	1	4	+3	+3.6	19
2	Lech Poznan	11	5	4	2	+3	+5.2	19
3	Jagiellonia	12	4	6	2	+3	-3.9	18
4	Cracovia	12	4	4	4	+0	-2.6	16
5	Korona Kielce	12	4	4	4	+0	-4.9	16
6	Zaglebie	11	4	3	4	-3	-4.2	15
7	Lechia Gdansk	12	4	3	5	-6	-0.6	15
8	Piast Gliwice	12	4	2	6	-3	-6.4	14
9	Nieciecza	11	3	3	5	-5	-2.8	12
10	Gornik Zabrze	11	3	3	5	-7	-6.5	12
11	Motor Lublin	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.7	12
12	GKS Katowice	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
13	Wisla Plock	10	1	6	3	-2	-1.3	9
14	Widzew Lodz	12	3	0	9	-5	+2.0	9
15	Legia	12	1	6	5	-6	-1.4	9
16	Radomiak Radom	12	1	6	5	-10	-6.5	9
17	Pogon Szczecin	11	2	2	7	-10	+1.1	8
18	Arka Gdynia	10	0	1	9	-22	-4.1	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.