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Ligue 1

Referee: T Leonard

Lyon

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Nice

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 46%

62%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

52%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

43%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 1,46

57% Possession 43%

9 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 5

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 3. · Nice 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	22	17	1	4	+25	+14.9	52
2	Paris SG	22	16	3	3	+30	+23.6	51
3	Lyon	21	13	3	5	+14	+10.3	42
4	Marseille	22	12	4	6	+19	+8.7	40
5	Lille	22	10	4	8	+4	+7.0	34
6	Rennes	22	9	7	6	-1	-2.0	34
7	Strasbourg	22	9	4	9	+7	+7.5	31
8	Monaco	22	9	4	9	+1	+5.5	31
9	Lorient	22	8	7	7	-4	+0.1	31
10	Toulouse	22	8	6	8	+6	+2.1	30
11	Angers	22	8	5	9	-5	-12.9	29
12	Brest	22	7	6	9	-5	+1.2	27
13	Le Havre	22	6	8	8	-7	-6.4	26
14	Nice	21	6	5	10	-11	-11.3	23
15	Paris FC	22	5	7	10	-13	-10.3	22
16	Auxerre	22	4	5	13	-13	-7.2	17
17	Nantes	22	3	5	14	-20	-13.1	14
18	Metz	22	3	4	15	-27	-17.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	11	10	0	1	+16	+12.7	30
2	Paris SG	10	9	1	0	+23	+13.9	28
3	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+16	+8.2	24
4	Lyon	10	8	0	2	+10	+9.6	24
5	Monaco	12	7	1	4	+6	+7.3	22
6	Lorient	11	6	4	1	+6	+4.8	22
7	Rennes	11	6	3	2	+10	+6.3	21
8	Lille	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.7	20
9	Angers	11	6	2	3	+4	-1.6	20
10	Le Havre	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.5	20
11	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.1	19
12	Brest	11	5	3	3	+3	+9.1	18
13	Toulouse	11	4	4	3	+4	+3.5	16
14	Nice	11	4	4	3	+0	-1.6	16
15	Auxerre	11	3	2	6	-2	+2.0	11
16	Paris FC	11	2	4	5	-8	-3.9	10
17	Metz	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	11	1	2	8	-12	-7.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	7	2	3	+7	+9.7	23
2	Lens	11	7	1	3	+9	+2.2	22
3	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+4	+0.7	18
4	Marseille	11	5	1	5	+3	+0.5	16
5	Toulouse	11	4	2	5	+2	-1.4	14
6	Lille	11	4	2	5	-1	-0.7	14
7	Rennes	11	3	4	4	-11	-8.3	13
8	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.6	12
9	Paris FC	11	3	3	5	-5	-6.3	12
10	Monaco	10	2	3	5	-5	-1.8	9
11	Brest	11	2	3	6	-8	-7.9	9
12	Nantes	11	2	3	6	-8	-5.7	9
13	Angers	11	2	3	6	-9	-11.2	9
14	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-10	-4.7	9
15	Nice	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	3	7	-11	-9.1	6
17	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
18	Metz	11	1	1	9	-19	-14.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.