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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Nice

T U S U T

3–3

Full-time

Lorient

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

27%

36%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

55%

41%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,24 xG 2,22

39% Possession 61%

8 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 14. · Lorient 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	17	3	3	+33	+25.9	54
2	Lens	23	17	1	5	+24	+14.9	52
3	Lyon	22	14	3	5	+16	+10.4	45
4	Marseille	23	12	4	7	+17	+9.2	40
5	Rennes	23	10	7	6	+2	-1.5	37
6	Lille	22	10	4	8	+4	+7.0	34
7	Monaco	23	10	4	9	+2	+5.5	34
8	Strasbourg	22	9	4	9	+7	+7.5	31
9	Toulouse	23	8	7	8	+6	+4.1	31
10	Lorient	22	8	7	7	-4	+0.1	31
11	Brest	23	8	6	9	-3	+0.8	30
12	Angers	22	8	5	9	-5	-12.9	29
13	Le Havre	22	6	8	8	-7	-6.4	26
14	Nice	22	6	5	11	-13	-11.3	23
15	Paris FC	23	5	8	10	-13	-12.3	23
16	Auxerre	23	4	5	14	-16	-7.6	17
17	Nantes	22	3	5	14	-20	-13.1	14
18	Metz	23	3	4	16	-30	-20.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	10	1	0	+26	+16.2	31
2	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
3	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
4	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+16	+8.2	24
5	Monaco	12	7	1	4	+6	+7.3	22
6	Lorient	11	6	4	1	+6	+4.8	22
7	Rennes	11	6	3	2	+10	+6.3	21
8	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
9	Lille	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.7	20
10	Angers	11	6	2	3	+4	-1.6	20
11	Le Havre	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.5	20
12	Strasbourg	10	6	1	3	+10	+11.1	19
13	Toulouse	12	4	5	3	+4	+5.5	17
14	Nice	11	4	4	3	+0	-1.6	16
15	Auxerre	12	3	2	7	-5	+1.5	11
16	Paris FC	11	2	4	5	-8	-3.9	10
17	Metz	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.8	9
18	Nantes	11	1	2	8	-12	-7.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	7	2	3	+7	+9.7	23
2	Lens	11	7	1	3	+9	+2.2	22
3	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+4	+0.7	18
4	Marseille	12	5	1	6	+1	+0.9	16
5	Rennes	12	4	4	4	-8	-7.8	16
6	Toulouse	11	4	2	5	+2	-1.4	14
7	Lille	11	4	2	5	-1	-0.7	14
8	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
9	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.6	12
10	Monaco	11	3	3	5	-4	-1.8	12
11	Brest	11	2	3	6	-8	-7.9	9
12	Nantes	11	2	3	6	-8	-5.7	9
13	Angers	11	2	3	6	-9	-11.2	9
14	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-10	-4.7	9
15	Nice	11	2	1	8	-13	-9.7	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	3	7	-11	-9.1	6
17	Le Havre	10	1	3	6	-11	-11.9	6
18	Metz	12	1	1	10	-22	-16.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.