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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Brentford

U S S S S

2–3

Full-time

Fulham

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 42%

44%

39%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

61%

58%

Both score Ø 68%

64%

72%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,87 xG 0,99

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

12 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 8. · Fulham 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	36	25	8	3	+46	+44.5	83
2	Arsenal	36	18	14	4	+33	+25.9	68
3	Newcastle	36	20	6	10	+23	+17.8	66
4	Chelsea	37	19	9	9	+20	+21.2	66
5	Aston Villa	37	19	9	9	+9	+9.3	66
6	Man City	36	19	8	9	+24	+18.5	65
7	Nott'm Forest	37	19	8	10	+13	-3.5	65
8	Brentford	36	16	7	13	+10	+1.7	55
9	Brighton	36	14	13	9	+3	+4.1	55
10	Bournemouth	36	14	11	11	+12	+14.6	53
11	Fulham	36	14	9	13	+1	+4.9	51
12	Crystal Palace	36	12	13	11	-2	+11.5	49
13	Everton	37	10	15	12	-3	-4.2	45
14	Wolves	36	12	5	19	-13	-13.5	41
15	West Ham	37	10	10	17	-18	-12.5	40
16	Man United	37	10	9	18	-12	-4.5	39
17	Tottenham	37	11	5	21	+2	-4.6	38
18	Ipswich	36	4	10	22	-42	-40.3	22
19	Leicester	36	5	7	24	-47	-38.7	22
20	Southampton	37	2	6	29	-59	-52.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.5	45
2	Chelsea	19	12	5	2	+17	+19.1	41
3	Aston Villa	19	11	7	1	+14	+15.5	40
4	Man City	18	12	3	3	+18	+15.0	39
5	Newcastle	18	12	2	4	+21	+10.8	38
6	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+17	+16.9	36
7	Nott'm Forest	18	9	5	4	+11	+3.4	32
8	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+6	+5.6	31
9	Brighton	18	7	8	3	+3	+5.5	29
10	Fulham	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.4	26
11	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	+5	+7.8	25
12	Everton	19	5	9	5	+3	+0.7	24
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	7	6	-4	+8.0	22
14	Tottenham	18	6	3	9	+3	-0.5	21
15	Man United	18	6	3	9	-7	+1.4	21
16	Wolves	18	6	2	10	-5	-5.4	20
17	West Ham	19	5	5	9	-11	-9.1	20
18	Leicester	18	3	3	12	-21	-15.8	12
19	Ipswich	18	1	4	13	-28	-16.8	7
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-33	-28.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+20	+22.0	38
2	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+2	-7.0	33
3	Arsenal	18	8	8	2	+16	+9.0	32
4	Bournemouth	18	7	7	4	+7	+6.8	28
5	Newcastle	18	8	4	6	+2	+7.0	28
6	Crystal Palace	18	7	6	5	+2	+3.5	27
7	Man City	18	7	5	6	+6	+3.4	26
8	Brighton	18	7	5	6	+0	-1.4	26
9	Aston Villa	18	8	2	8	-5	-6.2	26
10	Chelsea	18	7	4	7	+3	+2.2	25
11	Fulham	18	7	4	7	+2	+4.5	25
12	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+4	-3.9	24
13	Everton	18	5	6	7	-6	-4.9	21
14	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-8	-8.0	21
15	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-7	-3.4	20
16	Man United	19	4	6	9	-5	-5.9	18
17	Tottenham	19	5	2	12	-1	-4.0	17
18	Ipswich	18	3	6	9	-14	-23.5	15
19	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-26	-22.9	10
20	Southampton	19	1	3	15	-26	-23.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.