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Premiership
Referee: D McFarlane
Kilmarnock
T S S S T
0–1
Full-time
Hearts
U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Kilmarnock Hearts
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
This season — Premiership · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 35%
32%
38%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
46%
57%
Both score Ø 50%
46%
54%
Average goals
2,9
2,6
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%
17 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Kilmarnock 9. · Hearts 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 38 29 5 4 +86 92
2 Rangers 38 22 9 7 +39 75
3 Hibernian 38 15 13 10 +12 58
4 Dundee United 38 15 8 15 -9 53
5 Aberdeen 38 15 8 15 -13 53
6 St Mirren 38 14 8 16 -6 50
7 Hearts 37 14 7 16 +4 49
8 Motherwell 37 14 6 17 -17 48
9 Kilmarnock 37 12 8 17 -18 44
10 Dundee 38 11 8 19 -20 41
11 Ross County 37 9 9 19 -28 36
12 ST Johnstone 38 9 5 24 -30 32

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Jan -25 Hearts – Kilmarnock 3–2 15. Dec -24 Kilmarnock – Hearts 1–0 30. Oct -24 Hearts – Kilmarnock 1–2 27. Apr -24 Kilmarnock – Hearts 0–0 30. Mar -24 Hearts – Kilmarnock 1–1

Match report

Kilmarnock Hearts
19′
🟨 Adam Forrester
22′
🔁 R. Fulton
↦ Z. Clark
37′
ℹ️ Yan Dhanda
VAR: Card upgrade
38′
🟥 Yan Dhanda
Liam Donnelly 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–0
B. Anderson 🔁
↦ S. Findlay
46′
59′
🔁 C. Halkett
↦ H. Milne
M. Watkins 🔁
↦ B. Wales
65′
68′
🔁 S. Kartum
↦ C. Nieuwenhof
69′
🔁 J. Wilson
↦ A. Forrest
69′
🔁 E. Kabangu
↦ L. Shankland
L. Polworth 🔁
↦ B. Lyons
70′
Cole Burke I 🔁
↦ D. Armstrong
71′
G. Mackay-Steven 🔁
↦ K. Vassell
83′
89′
⚽ S. Kingsley 0–1
J. Wilson
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Kilmarnock

4-4-2
20 R. McCrorie G
8 B. Lyons D
5 L. Mayo D
17 S. Findlay D
3 C. Ndaba D
11 D. Armstrong M
12 D. Watson M
22 L. Donnelly M
15 F. Murray M
9 K. Vassell F
24 B. Wales F
Bench (9)
19 B. Anderson
23 M. Watkins
31 L. Polworth
37 Cole Burke I
14 G. Mackay-Steven
18 I. Cameron
21 C. Ramsay
1 K. O'Hara
38 A. Traynor

Coach: C. Burke

Hearts

4-3-3
28 Z. Clark G
35 A. Forrester D
2 F. Kent D
3 S. Kingsley D
18 H. Milne D
14 C. Devlin M
6 B. Baningime M
8 C. Nieuwenhof M
17 A. Forrest F
9 L. Shankland F
20 Y. Dhanda F
Bench (9)
12 R. Fulton
4 C. Halkett
27 S. Kartum
21 J. Wilson
19 E. Kabangu
15 M. Steinwender
7 J. Grant
64 A. Osborne
10 B. McKay

Coach: L. Fox

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,60
🔒
U
3,38
🔒
B ✓
2,63
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,85
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,92
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D McFarlane · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,31 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.