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Premier League

Referee: D Bond

Fulham

S S U T S

0–3

Full-time

Brentford

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,46 xG 3,93

55% Possession 45%

10 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 6. · Brentford 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
6	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
8	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
9	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
12	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
16	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
17	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
18	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
19	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
20	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
4	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
5	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
7	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
8	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
9	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
10	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
11	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
3	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
4	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
5	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
6	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
8	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
9	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
10	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.5	0
11	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.