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Eredivisie

Referee: Pol van Boekel

PSV Eindhoven

S S T S S

3–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

3,2

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 69%

94%

44%

Points per game

2,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

88%

69%

Both score Ø 47%

38%

56%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

3,6

1,8

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

+3,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · AZ Alkmaar 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	0	1	+50	45
2	Ajax	16	14	1	1	+50	43
3	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+15	35
4	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+8	25
5	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Heracles	15	7	2	6	-3	23
7	VVV Venlo	17	6	5	6	-3	23
8	Heerenveen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
9	For Sittard	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Vitesse	14	5	4	5	+1	19
11	Den Haag	16	5	4	7	-11	19
12	FC Emmen	16	4	5	7	-15	17
13	Willem II	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Excelsior	16	4	4	8	-19	16
15	Groningen	16	4	3	9	-6	15
16	Zwolle	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	NAC Breda	16	3	3	10	-19	12
18	De Graafschap	16	3	2	11	-29	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+32	24
2	Feyenoord	9	8	0	1	+13	24
3	Ajax	8	7	1	0	+30	22
4	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+8	18
5	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+11	16
6	VVV Venlo	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	For Sittard	9	3	3	3	+2	12
9	Vitesse	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	NAC Breda	8	3	1	4	-3	10
11	De Graafschap	8	3	0	5	-6	9
12	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-7	9
13	Den Haag	7	2	2	3	-6	8
14	Groningen	8	2	1	5	-1	7
15	FC Emmen	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Heerenveen	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Willem II	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Zwolle	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	7	0	1	+20	21
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Heerenveen	8	4	2	2	+6	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+2	13
5	Feyenoord	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-4	11
7	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	FC Emmen	8	3	2	3	-9	11
9	Zwolle	8	3	1	4	-6	10
10	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	-3	9
11	Vitesse	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Groningen	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	VVV Venlo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
15	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-12	7
16	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-11	5
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-16	2
18	De Graafschap	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.