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Eredivisie
Referee: J Manschot
0–1
Full-time
Ajax
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
4,7
Scored
1,7
3,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,3
This season — Eredivisie · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,5
6,0
Scored
1,0
4,5
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%
9 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 14. · Ajax 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 PSV Eindhoven 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Excelsior 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Twente 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 AZ Alkmaar 2 2 0 0 +3 6
6 Heerenveen 3 1 2 0 +4 5
7 Feyenoord 2 1 1 0 +3 4
8 Cambuur 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 FC Emmen 3 1 1 1 -2 4
10 Groningen 3 1 1 1 -4 4
11 Nijmegen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
12 Waalwijk 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Utrecht 3 0 2 1 -1 2
14 Sparta Rotterdam 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Volendam 2 0 1 1 -3 1
16 Go Ahead Eagles 3 0 0 3 -6 0
17 For Sittard 3 0 0 3 -7 0
18 Vitesse 3 0 0 3 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
Jonathan de Guzmán 🟨
14′
32′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
37′
S. Bergwijn 0–1
D. Blind
Half-time 0–1
Y. Namli 🔁
↦ V. van Crooij
46′
65′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ S. Berghuis
D. Abels 🔁
↦ S. Sambo
67′
73′
🔁 M. Kudus
↦ B. Brobbey
M. Engels 🔁
↦ J. Lokilo
78′
M. Eerdhuijzen 🔁
↦ J. de Guzmán
87′
C. Brym 🔁
↦ A. Auassar
88′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

4-2-3-1
1 N. Olij G
2 S. Sambo D
3 B. Vriends D
4 A. Auassar D
5 M. Pinto D
8 J. de Guzmán M
6 J. Kitolano M
11 V. van Crooij M
10 S. Mijnans M
7 J. Lokilo M
9 T. Lauritsen F
Bench (12)
17 Y. Namli
12 D. Abels
19 M. Engels
14 M. Eerdhuijzen
18 C. Brym
20 T. Coremans
16 A. Verschueren
13 O. Rekik
21 P. Brouwer
15 A. Meijers
30 Y. Schoonderwaldt
22 J. van Mullem

Coach: M. Steijn

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
3 C. Bassey D
17 D. Blind D
10 D. Tadić M
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
23 S. Berghuis F
9 B. Brobbey F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (9)
6 D. Klaassen
20 M. Kudus
29 L. Magallán
26 Y. Regeer
5 O. Wijndal
16 J. Gorter
1 M. Stekelenburg
18 L. Lucca
19 J. Sánchez

Coach: A. Schreuder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
10,69
U
6,26
B ✓
1,24
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,38
U2,5 ✓
2,96
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Manschot · 135 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.