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Eredivisie

Referee: S Gözübüyük

Ajax

S S S T U

0–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 52%

74%

30%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

55%

57%

Both score Ø 49%

48%

50%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,44 xG 0,75

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

10 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Nijmegen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	31	23	5	3	+36	+31.0	74
2	PSV Eindhoven	32	23	4	5	+59	+44.8	73
3	Feyenoord	32	19	8	5	+38	+23.6	65
4	Utrecht	32	18	8	6	+17	+3.8	62
5	Twente	30	14	9	7	+15	+13.0	51
6	Go Ahead Eagles	32	13	9	10	+3	+7.0	48
7	AZ Alkmaar	29	12	8	9	+8	+12.1	44
8	Heerenveen	31	11	7	13	-8	-1.4	40
9	For Sittard	32	11	6	15	-17	-8.1	39
10	Sparta Rotterdam	32	9	11	12	-2	+0.0	38
11	Groningen	31	10	8	13	-8	-6.5	38
12	Heracles	32	9	11	12	-17	-15.2	38
13	Zwolle	32	8	11	13	-11	-19.8	35
14	Nijmegen	30	9	7	14	+0	+2.5	34
15	NAC Breda	32	8	8	16	-21	-17.5	32
16	Willem II	32	6	7	19	-21	-30.4	25
17	Waalwijk	32	5	7	20	-30	-22.1	22
18	Almere City	32	4	8	20	-41	-16.5	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+37	+27.8	39
2	Ajax	15	12	3	0	+25	+21.8	39
3	Feyenoord	16	10	3	3	+18	+13.4	33
4	Heerenveen	16	9	6	1	+13	+8.8	33
5	Twente	15	9	4	2	+14	+12.3	31
6	Go Ahead Eagles	16	9	4	3	+9	+12.9	31
7	Groningen	16	8	5	3	+13	+5.5	29
8	Utrecht	16	9	2	5	+4	+6.6	29
9	Heracles	16	6	7	3	+3	+3.3	25
10	For Sittard	16	8	0	8	-7	+2.5	24
11	NAC Breda	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.1	23
12	Zwolle	16	6	4	6	+2	-3.4	22
13	Nijmegen	16	5	6	5	+9	+8.9	21
14	AZ Alkmaar	13	5	3	5	+1	+10.6	18
15	Sparta Rotterdam	16	4	6	6	-2	+4.8	18
16	Waalwijk	16	4	3	9	-8	-6.5	15
17	Willem II	16	3	3	10	-6	-12.1	12
18	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-23	-0.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	16	11	2	3	+11	+9.2	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	11	1	4	+22	+17.1	34
3	Utrecht	16	9	6	1	+13	-2.8	33
4	Feyenoord	16	9	5	2	+20	+10.2	32
5	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	5	4	+7	+1.5	26
6	Twente	15	5	5	5	+1	+0.7	20
7	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	5	6	+0	-4.7	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	16	4	5	7	-6	-6.0	17
9	For Sittard	16	3	6	7	-10	-10.6	15
10	Nijmegen	14	4	1	9	-9	-6.4	13
11	Zwolle	16	2	7	7	-13	-16.4	13
12	Willem II	16	3	4	9	-15	-18.3	13
13	Heracles	16	3	4	9	-20	-18.5	13
14	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-18	-16.1	10
15	NAC Breda	16	2	3	11	-20	-17.5	9
16	Groningen	15	2	3	10	-21	-12.1	9
17	Heerenveen	15	2	1	12	-21	-10.2	7
18	Waalwijk	16	1	4	11	-22	-15.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.