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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Nijmegen

T S S S T

1–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

2,8

2,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 57%

38%

75%

Points per game

1,2

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 41%

31%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,54 xG 0,98

51% Possession 49%

21 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 1

13 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 10. · Ajax 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	13	0	1	+39	+21.8	39
2	Utrecht	13	10	1	2	+7	-2.5	31
3	Feyenoord	14	8	5	1	+18	+14.6	29
4	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+16	+13.6	29
5	Twente	14	8	4	2	+15	+13.5	28
6	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	2	5	+3	+4.9	20
7	NAC Breda	14	6	1	7	-8	-5.7	19
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	5	3	6	-3	+9.2	18
9	For Sittard	14	5	3	6	-4	+1.2	18
10	Nijmegen	13	5	1	7	+8	+2.0	16
11	Willem II	14	4	4	6	-1	-10.2	16
12	Heerenveen	13	4	3	6	-5	-3.3	15
13	Zwolle	14	4	3	7	-9	-12.1	15
14	Groningen	14	4	3	7	-10	-11.3	15
15	Heracles	14	3	4	7	-12	-11.7	13
16	Sparta Rotterdam	14	2	5	7	-8	+0.9	11
17	Waalwijk	14	1	3	10	-21	-14.3	6
18	Almere City	14	1	3	10	-25	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+21	+11.9	18
2	Ajax	6	6	0	0	+12	+8.6	18
3	Twente	7	4	3	0	+9	+10.1	15
4	Heerenveen	7	4	3	0	+8	+4.6	15
5	NAC Breda	7	5	0	2	+3	+1.0	15
6	Utrecht	7	5	0	2	+0	+1.2	15
7	Feyenoord	7	4	2	1	+5	+8.1	14
8	For Sittard	7	4	0	3	+2	+3.2	12
9	Zwolle	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
10	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+4	-0.8	11
11	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	2	2	+2	+9.3	11
12	Nijmegen	7	3	1	3	+7	+4.2	10
13	Heracles	7	2	3	2	+0	-1.4	9
14	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-2.5	8
15	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.8	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	7	0	4	3	-5	+3.8	4
17	Waalwijk	7	1	1	5	-8	-5.9	4
18	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-15	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	+9.9	21
2	Utrecht	6	5	1	0	+7	-3.7	16
3	Feyenoord	7	4	3	0	+13	+6.6	15
4	Twente	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.4	13
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.0	13
6	Ajax	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.0	11
7	Willem II	7	2	2	3	-2	-7.7	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.0	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.1	7
10	Nijmegen	6	2	0	4	+1	-2.2	6
11	For Sittard	7	1	3	3	-6	-2.0	6
12	NAC Breda	7	1	1	5	-11	-6.7	4
13	Heracles	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.3	4
14	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-14	-10.5	4
15	Zwolle	7	0	3	4	-10	-10.4	3
16	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-10	-7.7	2
17	Waalwijk	7	0	2	5	-13	-8.4	2
18	Heerenveen	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.