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Eredivisie

Referee: E Blank

Excelsior

U U U U S

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 37%

32%

41%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

59%

64%

Both score Ø 66%

59%

73%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,75 xG 2,01

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 12. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	19	2	2	+39	+23.3	59
2	Feyenoord	22	13	3	6	+20	+18.2	42
3	Nijmegen	22	12	5	5	+19	+8.4	41
4	Ajax	21	9	9	3	+11	+6.2	36
5	Sparta Rotterdam	22	11	3	8	-7	-2.5	36
6	Twente	22	8	10	4	+12	+23.6	34
7	AZ Alkmaar	22	9	6	7	+1	+14.0	33
8	Groningen	21	9	4	8	+3	+9.4	31
9	Heerenveen	21	7	6	8	-2	+10.8	27
10	Utrecht	21	7	5	9	+4	-2.5	26
11	For Sittard	22	7	5	10	-5	-14.1	26
12	Excelsior	22	7	5	10	-13	-13.3	26
13	Zwolle	22	7	5	10	-14	-15.9	26
14	Volendam	23	6	6	11	-12	-19.0	24
15	Go Ahead Eagles	22	4	11	7	-5	-12.7	23
16	NAC Breda	23	4	7	12	-12	-7.8	19
17	Telstar	22	3	8	11	-12	-10.7	17
18	Heracles	23	5	2	16	-27	-15.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	2	1	+20	+13.2	26
2	Nijmegen	11	7	2	2	+13	+8.8	23
3	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	+11.2	22
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+10.3	20
5	Twente	11	5	4	2	+7	+14.6	19
6	Volendam	12	5	4	3	+4	-1.9	19
7	Zwolle	11	6	1	4	+0	-1.2	19
8	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+2	-1.1	18
9	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	5	2	+2	+8.5	17
10	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	-5	-0.9	17
11	Utrecht	10	5	1	4	+7	+3.7	16
12	Groningen	11	4	3	4	+5	+7.5	15
13	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
14	Heerenveen	11	3	5	3	-1	+8.9	14
15	Excelsior	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
16	Heracles	11	4	1	6	-5	-2.2	13
17	NAC Breda	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.4	12
18	Telstar	11	1	4	6	-6	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+19	+10.2	33
2	Feyenoord	11	6	2	3	+9	+7.0	20
3	Sparta Rotterdam	11	6	1	4	-2	-1.6	19
4	Nijmegen	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.4	18
5	Ajax	11	3	7	1	+3	-4.1	16
6	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	1	5	-1	+5.5	16
7	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
8	Twente	11	3	6	2	+5	+8.9	15
9	Heerenveen	10	4	1	5	-1	+1.9	13
10	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-11	-8.0	12
11	Utrecht	11	2	4	5	-3	-6.2	10
12	Telstar	11	2	4	5	-6	-9.6	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	11	1	5	5	-6	-13.1	8
14	For Sittard	11	2	2	7	-7	-13.0	8
15	NAC Breda	11	1	4	6	-8	-10.2	7
16	Zwolle	11	1	4	6	-14	-14.7	7
17	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-17.1	5
18	Heracles	12	1	1	10	-22	-13.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.