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Eredivisie

Referee: Richard Martens

Heerenveen

T T U T S

2–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 23%

17%

29%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

67%

71%

Both score Ø 70%

83%

57%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,7

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,01 xG 0,57

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 17. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+14	+6.7	19
2	Feyenoord	7	6	1	0	+11	+8.1	19
3	Ajax	8	4	4	0	+7	+5.3	16
4	Groningen	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.7	15
5	For Sittard	8	4	1	3	+1	-4.6	13
6	Nijmegen	7	4	0	3	+8	+6.8	12
7	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+4	+3.7	12
8	Twente	7	3	1	3	+2	+6.7	10
9	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	1	4	-11	-4.1	10
10	Utrecht	6	3	0	3	+6	+1.3	9
11	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.5	9
12	Telstar	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.2	7
13	Volendam	8	1	4	3	-4	-4.6	7
14	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.7	7
15	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-8	-7.1	7
16	Excelsior	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.8	6
17	Heerenveen	6	1	2	3	-2	+6.2	5
18	Heracles	7	1	0	6	-12	-11.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	For Sittard	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.5	10
3	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+7	+6.4	9
4	Groningen	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.8	9
5	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
6	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.2	7
7	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
8	NAC Breda	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.1	6
9	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.9	5
10	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	+0	+4.5	5
11	Volendam	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.9	5
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
13	Twente	3	1	1	1	-1	+3.2	4
14	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.4	4
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.9	4
16	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-1	-4.3	3
17	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-2	-4.1	3
18	Zwolle	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.5	12
2	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.3	10
3	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-3	-0.0	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.2	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.1	5
8	Ajax	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.0	4
9	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.1	4
10	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.4	3
11	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.1	3
12	For Sittard	4	1	0	3	-2	-6.1	3
13	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
14	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-7	-1.6	3
15	Volendam	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.7	2
16	NAC Breda	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.8	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-11	-6.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.