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Eredivisie

Referee: E Blank

Heerenveen

S S T T T

0–3

Full-time

Excelsior

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,3

4,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 80%

80%

Average goals

4,4

3,8

Scored

1,8

Conceded

2,6

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,78 xG 0,91

59% Possession 41%

9 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 12. · Excelsior 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+10.4	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	+4.3	12
3	Twente	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.9	12
4	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+14	+10.8	11
5	Go Ahead Eagles	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.3	10
6	For Sittard	6	2	3	1	+0	+2.2	9
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.7	8
8	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	+0	-6.0	7
9	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	-1	+2.6	7
10	Heracles	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.9	7
11	Excelsior	5	1	3	1	-1	-2.7	6
12	Heerenveen	5	2	0	3	-4	-5.8	6
13	Ajax	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.3	5
14	Vitesse	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-9	+1.1	3
16	Utrecht	6	1	0	5	-10	-4.8	3
17	Volendam	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.5	1
18	Almere City	6	0	1	5	-14	-6.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.2	9
2	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+10	+5.9	7
3	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
4	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.4	6
5	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+6.2	6
6	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+5	+0.8	6
7	Twente	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
8	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
9	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.6	4
10	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
11	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
12	Excelsior	3	0	3	0	+0	-2.3	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Volendam	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
15	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
16	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.3	0
17	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.2	0
18	Almere City	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.2	9
2	Twente	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.2	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.9	6
4	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.9	6
5	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.8	4
6	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
8	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
9	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
10	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-4	-5.1	3
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.6	3
12	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
13	For Sittard	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.7	2
14	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-4	-4.5	1
16	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
17	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.5	1
18	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.