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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Godinho
Porto
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Guimaraes
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
3,2
1,5
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 59%
82%
36%
Points per game
2,6
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
73%
55%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
45%
Average goals
3,2
2,1
Scored
2,5
1,2
Conceded
0,6
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,9
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%
17 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 2
3 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Porto 3. · Guimaraes 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 12 10 2 0 +15 32
2 Benfica 12 10 1 1 +27 31
3 Porto 11 9 2 0 +21 29
4 Estoril 11 5 5 1 +7 20
5 Portimonense 12 6 2 4 +4 20
6 Sp Braga 11 5 4 2 +3 19
7 Guimaraes 11 4 4 3 +3 16
8 Gil Vicente 12 3 5 4 +0 14
9 Arouca 12 3 4 5 -5 13
10 Tondela 12 4 0 8 -6 12
11 Boavista 12 2 5 5 -7 11
12 Pacos Ferreira 12 2 5 5 -7 11
13 Famalicao 12 2 4 6 -4 10
14 Maritimo 12 2 4 6 -5 10
15 Vizela 11 1 7 3 -7 10
16 Moreirense 12 1 6 5 -8 9
17 Belenenses 12 1 5 6 -15 8
18 Santa Clara 11 1 3 7 -16 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Guimaraes
11′
🟨 André Amaro
35′
ℹ️ Marcus Edwards
VAR: Penalty awarded
36′
M. Edwards 0–1
1–1 L. Díaz
M. Uribe
38′
42′
🟨 Tomás Händel
Half-time 1–1
Vitinha 🔁
↦ Sérgio Oliveira
46′
47′
ℹ️ Abdul Mumin
VAR: Goal cancelled
48′
🟨 Abdul Mumin
Sérgio Oliveira 🟨
49′
53′
🟨 Abdul Mumin
53′
🟥 Abdul Mumin
58′
🔁 Jorge Fernandes
↦ Bruno Duarte
2–1 Evanilson
Otávio
59′
66′
🔁 Ricardo Quaresma
↦ N. Janvier
66′
🔁 Alfa Semedo
↦ Tomás Händel
Wendell 🔁
↦ Z. Sanusi
68′
77′
🔁 Rúben Lameiras
↦ Rochinha
77′
🔁 F. Sacko
↦ João Ferreira
J. Corona 🔁
↦ Otávio
78′
Wilson Manafá 🔁
↦ João Mário
78′
Wendell 🟨
80′
80′
🟨 Falaye Sacko
85′
🟨 Alfa Semedo
Fábio Vieira 🔁
↦ M. Taremi
91′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
19 C. Mbemba D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
12 Z. Sanusi D
27 Sérgio Oliveira M
8 M. Uribe M
25 Otávio M
9 M. Taremi F
7 L. Díaz M
23 João Mário D
30 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
20 Vitinha
22 Wendell
17 J. Corona
18 Wilson Manafá
50 Fábio Vieira
16 M. Grujić
29 Toni Martínez
11 Pepê Aquino
1 A. Marchesín

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Guimaraes

4-3-3
14 Bruno Varela G
5 Rafa Soares D
6 A. Mumin D
23 João Ferreira D
13 André Amaro D
98 N. Janvier M
70 André Almeida M
76 Tomás Händel M
16 Rochinha F
10 M. Edwards F
9 Bruno Duarte F
Bench (9)
44 Jorge Fernandes
7 Ricardo Quaresma
30 Alfa Semedo
8 Rúben Lameiras
17 F. Sacko
22 Gui
91 Hélder Sá
29 M. Trmal
28 Sílvio

Coach: Pêpa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,33
U
5,17
B
8,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,65
U2,5
2,21
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Luis Godinho · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.