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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 54%

78%

30%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

44%

37%

Both score Ø 46%

44%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

2,0

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 1

6 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Pacos Ferreira 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	27	23	4	0	+49	73
2	Sp Lisbon	27	21	4	2	+37	67
3	Benfica	28	19	4	5	+42	61
4	Sp Braga	28	15	7	6	+18	52
5	Gil Vicente	28	12	10	6	+11	46
6	Guimaraes	28	11	6	11	+1	39
7	Estoril	28	8	10	10	-2	34
8	Maritimo	28	8	9	11	-5	33
9	Pacos Ferreira	27	8	9	10	-7	33
10	Santa Clara	27	7	10	10	-13	31
11	Boavista	28	5	15	8	-8	30
12	Portimonense	28	7	8	13	-8	29
13	Vizela	28	6	11	11	-15	29
14	Famalicao	28	6	10	12	-9	28
15	Arouca	28	6	8	14	-22	26
16	Tondela	28	7	4	17	-19	25
17	Belenenses	28	4	9	15	-29	21
18	Moreirense	28	4	8	16	-21	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+19	29
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+12	28
5	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+6	23
6	Santa Clara	14	6	5	3	-3	23
7	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+4	20
8	Boavista	14	3	9	2	+2	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	5	5	-3	17
10	Maritimo	14	3	6	5	+0	15
11	Estoril	14	3	6	5	-1	15
12	Famalicao	14	3	6	5	-2	15
13	Vizela	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-14	15
15	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-15	14
17	Moreirense	14	3	3	8	-5	12
18	Portimonense	14	2	4	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+24	38
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+23	32
4	Gil Vicente	14	7	5	2	+7	26
5	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+6	24
6	Portimonense	14	5	4	5	+0	19
7	Estoril	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Maritimo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	15	4	4	7	-5	16
11	Vizela	14	3	5	6	-10	14
12	Famalicao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
13	Arouca	14	2	6	6	-7	12
14	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-10	12
15	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-12	11
16	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
17	Moreirense	14	1	5	8	-16	8
18	Belenenses	14	0	6	8	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.