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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Sp Lisbon

S T U U S

2–1

Full-time

Famalicao

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 56%

66%

45%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

66%

48%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Famalicao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	30	25	2	3	+54	77
2	Porto	30	23	4	3	+44	73
3	Sp Braga	30	23	2	5	+41	71
4	Sp Lisbon	29	19	4	6	+32	61
5	Arouca	30	13	9	8	-1	48
6	Guimaraes	30	13	5	12	-7	44
7	Famalicao	29	13	3	13	-4	42
8	Chaves	30	10	10	10	-4	40
9	Vizela	30	11	6	13	+1	39
10	Casa Pia	30	11	6	13	-7	39
11	Rio Ave	30	10	8	12	-4	38
12	Boavista	30	10	7	13	-13	37
13	Portimonense	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Gil Vicente	30	8	7	15	-10	31
15	Estoril	30	8	4	18	-19	28
16	Maritimo	30	6	4	20	-29	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	30	5	5	20	-29	20
18	Santa Clara	30	3	7	20	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+29	39
3	Sp Braga	15	11	2	2	+24	35
4	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+28	34
5	Arouca	15	9	2	4	+5	29
6	Famalicao	15	9	1	5	+5	28
7	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	+2	27
8	Rio Ave	15	8	2	5	+5	26
9	Boavista	15	7	5	3	+1	26
10	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	+1	21
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Chaves	15	5	5	5	+0	20
13	Vizela	15	5	3	7	+0	18
14	Gil Vicente	15	4	6	5	-2	18
15	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	15	2	5	8	-13	11
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	2	2	11	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Sp Braga	15	12	0	3	+17	36
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Vizela	15	6	3	6	+1	21
6	Chaves	15	5	5	5	-4	20
7	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
8	Casa Pia	15	5	3	7	-8	18
9	Guimaraes	15	5	2	8	-9	17
10	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	1	10	-8	13
12	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-9	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	3	9	-11	12
14	Portimonense	15	4	0	11	-15	12
15	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-11	11
16	Boavista	15	3	2	10	-14	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	2	12	-16	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.