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KNVB Beker
Referee: D Higler
Ajax
U S S S T
1–1
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,8
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
This season — KNVB Beker · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 63%
25%
100%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
0,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%
13 Shots 12
0 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 17
5 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · PSV Eindhoven 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Spakenburg 6 4 1 1 +5 13
2 Ajax 4 4 0 0 +7 12
3 PSV Eindhoven 4 4 0 0 +6 12
4 De Graafschap 4 3 0 1 +5 9
5 Heerenveen 4 3 0 1 +4 9
6 Utrecht 4 3 0 1 +3 9
7 Den Haag 4 3 0 1 +2 9
8 De Treffers 4 3 0 1 +2 9
9 Nijmegen 3 2 1 0 +5 7
10 Katwijk 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 Feyenoord 4 2 1 1 +2 7
12 Blauw Geel 3 2 0 1 +5 6
13 Hercules 3 2 0 1 +4 6
14 ADO '20 3 2 0 1 +3 6
15 Go Ahead Eagles 3 2 0 1 +2 6
16 HV & CV Quick 3 2 0 1 +1 6
17 NAC Breda 3 2 0 1 +1 6
18 FC Emmen 3 2 0 1 +0 6
19 URK 3 2 0 1 +0 6
20 Sportlust '46 3 2 0 1 -1 6
21 Staphorst 3 1 1 1 +1 4
22 Hoek 3 1 1 1 +0 4
23 Kozakken Boys 3 1 1 1 -1 4
24 OFC Oostzaan 2 1 0 1 +2 3
25 Groningen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
26 Volendam 2 1 0 1 +2 3
27 AZ Alkmaar 2 1 0 1 +2 3
28 DVS 33 Ermelo 2 1 0 1 +2 3
29 Cambuur 2 1 0 1 +2 3
30 Excelsior 2 1 0 1 +1 3
31 Sparta Rotterdam 2 1 0 1 +1 3
32 Twente 2 1 0 1 +1 3
33 VVV Venlo 2 1 0 1 +0 3
34 Excelsior '31 2 1 0 1 +0 3
35 Den Bosch 2 1 0 1 +0 3
36 Groene Ster 2 1 0 1 +0 3
37 Dongen 2 1 0 1 +0 3
38 FC Eindhoven 2 1 0 1 +0 3
39 TEC 2 1 0 1 +0 3
40 Telstar 2 1 0 1 -1 3
41 Zwolle 2 1 0 1 -1 3
42 GVVV Veenendaal 2 1 0 1 -1 3
43 Almere City 2 1 0 1 -2 3
44 Rijnvogels 2 1 0 1 -2 3
45 AFC Amsterdam 1 0 1 0 +0 1
46 Roda 1 0 1 0 +0 1
47 Vitesse 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Hsc 21 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 SVV Scheveningen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Ijsselmeervogels 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 GVV Unitas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Heracles 2 0 1 1 -1 1
53 RKAV Volendam 2 0 1 1 -2 1
54 DEM 2 0 1 1 -3 1
55 Harkemase Boys 2 0 1 1 -4 1
56 VVOG 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 For Sittard 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 OJC Rosmalen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 ASWH 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Quick Boys 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 Gemert 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 OSS '20 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 SteDoCo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Excelsior Maassluis 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Willem II 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Dovo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 ACV 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 UNA 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Sparta Nijkerk 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Koninklijke HFC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 HHC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Helmond Sport 1 0 0 1 -2 0
73 JOS Watergraafsmeer 1 0 0 1 -2 0
74 Noordwijk 1 0 0 1 -2 0
75 Rijnsburgse Boys 1 0 0 1 -2 0
76 FC OSS 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Barendrecht 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Waalwijk 1 0 0 1 -2 0
79 Dordrecht 1 0 0 1 -3 0
80 TOGB 1 0 0 1 -3 0
81 Vvsb 1 0 0 1 -3 0
82 FC Lisse 1 0 0 1 -3 0
83 UDI '19 1 0 0 1 -4 0
84 MVV 1 0 0 1 -4 0
85 Ter Leede 1 0 0 1 -4 0
86 Baronie 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.