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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Benfica

T T U S S

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 80%

83%

77%

Points per game

2,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 34%

30%

37%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

2,4

2,2

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Sp Braga 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	30	25	2	3	+54	77
2	Porto	30	23	4	3	+44	73
3	Sp Braga	30	23	2	5	+41	71
4	Sp Lisbon	30	20	4	6	+33	64
5	Arouca	30	13	9	8	-1	48
6	Guimaraes	30	13	5	12	-7	44
7	Famalicao	30	13	3	14	-5	42
8	Chaves	30	10	10	10	-4	40
9	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	-7	40
10	Boavista	31	11	7	13	-12	40
11	Vizela	30	11	6	13	+1	39
12	Rio Ave	30	10	8	12	-4	38
13	Portimonense	31	10	4	17	-16	34
14	Gil Vicente	31	8	7	16	-11	31
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	-20	28
16	Maritimo	30	6	4	20	-29	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	30	5	5	20	-29	20
18	Santa Clara	31	4	7	20	-28	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+29	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+29	37
4	Sp Braga	15	11	2	2	+24	35
5	Arouca	15	9	2	4	+5	29
6	Boavista	16	8	5	3	+2	29
7	Famalicao	15	9	1	5	+5	28
8	Guimaraes	15	8	3	4	+2	27
9	Rio Ave	15	8	2	5	+5	26
10	Casa Pia	16	6	4	6	+1	22
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Chaves	15	5	5	5	+0	20
13	Vizela	15	5	3	7	+0	18
14	Gil Vicente	15	4	6	5	-2	18
15	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	2	2	11	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Sp Braga	15	12	0	3	+17	36
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Vizela	15	6	3	6	+1	21
6	Chaves	15	5	5	5	-4	20
7	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
8	Casa Pia	15	5	3	7	-8	18
9	Guimaraes	15	5	2	8	-9	17
10	Famalicao	15	4	2	9	-10	14
11	Gil Vicente	16	4	1	11	-9	13
12	Portimonense	16	4	1	11	-15	13
13	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-9	12
14	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	3	9	-11	12
15	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-12	11
16	Boavista	15	3	2	10	-14	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	2	12	-16	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.