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Eredivisie
Referee: D Makkelie
Ajax
S S S T U
0–0
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
2,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
70%
60%
Both score Ø 63%
63%
63%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
2,6
2,0
Conceded
1,1
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%
18 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 3. · AZ Alkmaar 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 30 22 7 1 +45 73
2 PSV Eindhoven 31 21 5 5 +47 68
3 Ajax 30 18 8 4 +47 62
4 AZ Alkmaar 30 18 6 6 +27 60
5 Sparta Rotterdam 27 15 6 6 +21 51
6 Twente 26 14 7 5 +26 49
7 Utrecht 29 11 9 9 -1 42
8 Waalwijk 31 11 8 12 -3 41
9 Nijmegen 31 8 14 9 +4 38
10 Heerenveen 29 10 7 12 -9 37
11 Go Ahead Eagles 30 9 9 12 -8 36
12 For Sittard 30 9 5 16 -21 32
13 Vitesse 30 7 10 13 -12 31
14 Volendam 31 8 6 17 -28 30
15 FC Emmen 30 6 10 14 -22 28
16 Excelsior 30 8 4 18 -39 28
17 Groningen 30 4 5 21 -32 17
18 Cambuur 31 4 4 23 -42 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax AZ Alkmaar
40′
🔁 M. Lahdo
↦ J. Odgaard
Half-time 0–0
O. Wijndal 🔁
↦ M. Kudus
46′
49′
🟨 Pantelis Hatzidiakos
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ D. Klaassen
74′
J. Sánchez 🔁
↦ D. Rensch
74′
78′
🔁 D. Mihailovic
↦ S. Mijnans
78′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ V. Pavlidis
84′
🟨 Đorđe Mihailović
Jorrel Hato 🟨
87′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-2-3-1
12 G. Rulli G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
4 E. Álvarez D
57 J. Hato D
6 D. Klaassen M
8 K. Taylor M
20 M. Kudus M
10 D. Tadić M
7 S. Bergwijn M
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
5 O. Wijndal
35 Francisco Conceição
19 J. Sánchez
21 F. Grillitsch
26 Y. Regeer
1 M. Stekelenburg
3 C. Bassey
18 L. Lucca
39 M. Godts
25 Y. Baas
41 S. Vos
22 R. Pasveer

Coach: J. Heitinga

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
31 S. Beukema D
3 P. Hatzidiakos D
5 M. Kerkez D
8 J. Clasie M
6 T. Reijnders M
7 J. Odgaard M
16 S. Mijnans M
19 M. van Brederode M
9 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (11)
23 M. Lahdo
14 D. Mihailovic
35 M. Meerdink
34 M. de Wit
27 Z. Vanheusden
54 D. Deen
25 R. Bazoer
12 H. Verhulst
32 F. de Jong
46 W. Goes
28 Z. Buurmeester

Coach: P. Jansen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,56
U ✓
4,46
B
5,35
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,55
U2,5 ✓
2,42
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.