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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Ajax

T U U S T

2–0

Full-time

Utrecht

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

43%

35%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

83%

35%

Both score Ø 63%

78%

48%

Average goals

4,1

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,10 xG 0,50

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Utrecht 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	21	2	0	+66	+52.6	65
2	Feyenoord	23	17	4	2	+41	+45.6	55
3	Twente	24	15	5	4	+24	+16.0	50
4	AZ Alkmaar	24	12	7	5	+22	+12.0	43
5	Ajax	23	10	6	7	+8	+8.0	36
6	Go Ahead Eagles	23	10	6	7	+6	-4.3	36
7	Nijmegen	23	9	8	6	+9	-7.7	35
8	Utrecht	23	8	8	7	-1	-7.0	32
9	Sparta Rotterdam	24	8	6	10	-4	-6.1	30
10	Heerenveen	23	8	4	11	-6	-3.2	28
11	Zwolle	23	7	6	10	-9	-9.7	27
12	For Sittard	23	7	6	10	-16	+0.0	27
13	Almere City	23	7	6	10	-17	-10.8	27
14	Heracles	23	6	4	13	-24	-19.0	22
15	Excelsior	23	4	9	10	-11	-9.7	21
16	Waalwijk	24	5	3	16	-21	-12.7	18
17	Vitesse	24	4	4	16	-30	-19.6	16
18	Volendam	24	3	4	17	-37	-24.3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+28	+29.5	33
2	Twente	12	9	1	2	+12	+10.9	28
3	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+21	+24.9	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+15	+11.7	23
5	Ajax	11	6	3	2	+12	+7.3	21
6	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+11	+6.0	21
7	Nijmegen	11	6	2	3	+10	+4.3	20
8	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+3	+8.4	18
9	Heerenveen	11	5	2	4	+4	+7.1	17
10	Utrecht	12	4	5	3	+0	-1.0	17
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	4	5	-5	+1.1	13
13	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-8	-3.2	13
14	Excelsior	12	2	6	4	-4	-0.2	12
15	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
16	Zwolle	12	3	2	7	-12	-1.3	11
17	Vitesse	12	1	4	7	-10	-6.2	7
18	Volendam	12	2	1	9	-21	-6.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	2	0	+38	+23.1	32
2	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+20	+20.7	28
3	Twente	12	6	4	2	+12	+5.2	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+7	+0.3	20
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	2	5	+1	-7.2	17
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Nijmegen	12	3	6	3	-1	-12.0	15
8	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.0	15
9	Ajax	12	4	3	5	-4	+0.7	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	3	4	-5	-10.3	15
11	Almere City	11	4	2	5	-9	-7.6	14
12	Heerenveen	12	3	2	7	-10	-10.3	11
13	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-7	-9.6	9
14	For Sittard	12	2	3	7	-19	-8.3	9
15	Vitesse	12	3	0	9	-20	-13.4	9
16	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-14	-12.3	8
17	Waalwijk	12	2	1	9	-14	-8.3	7
18	Volendam	12	1	3	8	-16	-17.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.