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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Gil Vicente

U U U U T

3–0

Full-time

Estrela

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,59 xG 0,70

43% Possession 57%

6 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 12. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+13	+11.6	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
4	Santa Clara	7	5	0	2	+3	+5.3	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+8	+2.5	14
6	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+5	-0.2	13
7	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.9	13
8	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.6	8
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.3	8
10	AVS	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
11	Rio Ave	8	2	2	4	-7	-4.8	8
12	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-5	-3.5	7
13	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
14	Arouca	7	2	0	5	-9	-8.8	6
15	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
16	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.1	5
17	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.0	5
18	Farense	7	0	1	6	-11	-9.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+12.4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+1	+4.3	9
5	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.1	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.1	8
7	AVS	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.7	8
8	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
9	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
10	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.6	5
11	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
12	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
15	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.3	5
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
11	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Nacional	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.6	2
14	Gil Vicente	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.0	2
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
16	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	-5.2	1
17	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0
18	Rio Ave	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.