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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Krasny

Stal Mielec

T T S U U

2–1

Full-time

Lechia Gdansk

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Lechia Gdansk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

20%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

11%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

33%

80%

Average goals

1,8

3,1

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,96 xG 0,28

52% Possession 48%

31 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 16. · Lechia Gdansk 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	10	8	1	1	+15	+4.8	25
2	Jagiellonia	10	7	0	3	+1	-1.0	21
3	Rakow	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.7	20
4	Cracovia	10	6	2	2	+5	+2.6	20
5	Pogon Szczecin	10	5	1	4	+3	+3.8	16
6	Widzew Lodz	11	4	4	3	+1	-1.9	16
7	Legia	10	4	3	3	+6	+4.2	15
8	GKS Katowice	11	4	3	4	+5	+1.0	15
9	Piast Gliwice	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.8	15
10	Gornik Zabrze	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.0	12
11	Motor Lublin	10	3	3	4	-4	-1.8	12
12	Korona Kielce	11	3	3	5	-7	-3.6	12
13	Zaglebie	10	3	2	5	-7	-2.3	11
14	Radomiak Radom	9	3	0	6	-2	+0.4	9
15	Lechia Gdansk	10	2	3	5	-7	-6.6	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	2	5	-4	-2.4	8
17	Puszcza	11	1	5	5	-9	-7.2	8
18	Slask Wroclaw	8	0	4	4	-6	+0.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	5	5	0	0	+12	+5.6	15
2	Pogon Szczecin	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.1	15
3	Jagiellonia	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
4	Legia	6	3	1	2	+6	+5.9	10
5	Widzew Lodz	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.1	10
6	Zaglebie	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.4	10
7	GKS Katowice	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.6	8
8	Piast Gliwice	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.1	8
9	Cracovia	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.9	8
10	Motor Lublin	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.2	8
11	Rakow	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.6	7
12	Gornik Zabrze	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.9	7
13	Stal Mielec	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.0	7
14	Radomiak Radom	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.6	6
15	Korona Kielce	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.1	6
16	Puszcza	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.6	6
17	Lechia Gdansk	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.3	5
18	Slask Wroclaw	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	5	4	1	0	+5	+3.1	13
2	Cracovia	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.4	12
3	Lech Poznan	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
4	Jagiellonia	5	3	0	2	-3	-5.3	9
5	GKS Katowice	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.5	7
6	Piast Gliwice	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.7	7
7	Widzew Lodz	6	1	3	2	-1	-2.1	6
8	Korona Kielce	6	1	3	2	-6	-4.7	6
9	Legia	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.7	5
10	Gornik Zabrze	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.0	5
11	Motor Lublin	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.0	4
12	Lechia Gdansk	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.2	4
13	Radomiak Radom	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.1	3
14	Puszcza	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.6	2
15	Stal Mielec	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.4	1
16	Slask Wroclaw	5	0	1	4	-6	-1.4	1
17	Pogon Szczecin	5	0	1	4	-6	-2.2	1
18	Zaglebie	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.