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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Udinese

S S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,87 xG 0,51

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 0

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 8. · Lecce 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	5	1	1	+9	+4.7	16
2	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+9	+4.4	12
3	Milan	6	3	2	1	+7	+4.7	11
4	Inter	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
5	Torino	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.4	11
6	Empoli	6	2	4	0	+3	-1.8	10
7	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.1	10
8	Udinese	6	3	1	2	-1	-4.2	10
9	Roma	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.3	9
10	Verona	7	3	0	4	+0	-1.6	9
11	Como	7	2	2	3	-4	-0.9	8
12	Fiorentina	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.3	7
13	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.4	7
14	Bologna	6	1	4	1	-2	-0.9	7
15	Parma	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.8	5
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-6	+0.1	5
17	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.9	5
18	Lecce	6	1	2	3	-8	-3.1	5
19	Venezia	7	1	1	5	-7	-4.6	4
20	Monza	6	0	3	3	-4	-4.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	+4.7	12
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.3	7
3	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.9	7
4	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.1	6
5	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.5	6
6	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
7	Verona	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
8	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
9	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	+3.8	5
10	Como	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
12	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
13	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
14	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
16	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
17	Empoli	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.6	3
18	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.0	2
19	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
20	Monza	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.2	7
3	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
4	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
5	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
6	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
7	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
8	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
10	Como	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.0	4
11	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
13	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
16	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
17	Monza	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
18	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
19	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.