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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Leverkusen

S S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,0

4,8

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,3

3,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 90%

100%

80%

Average goals

4,8

Scored

2,8

1,4

Conceded

2,0

3,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,08 xG 1,65

74% Possession 26%

24 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 4. · Holstein Kiel 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.4	13
2	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.5	12
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.0	11
4	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+4	+5.0	10
5	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.8	10
6	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.1	9
7	Freiburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.3	9
8	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+4.0	8
9	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	-3	+0.1	8
11	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.2	7
12	M'gladbach	6	2	0	4	-3	-1.1	6
13	Mainz	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.1	5
14	Wolfsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.2	4
15	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
16	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.3	3
17	Bochum	5	0	1	4	-6	-7.4	1
18	Holstein Kiel	5	0	1	4	-10	-5.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
3	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
5	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
7	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
8	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.9	4
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.0	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
3	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.1	6
6	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
7	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
8	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
9	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
10	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
11	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
12	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
13	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
14	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
15	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.