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Primeira Liga

Referee: H Malheiro

Tondela

T U T U T

0–2

Full-time

Nacional

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 19%

14%

23%

Points per game

0,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

52%

43%

Both score Ø 42%

34%

50%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

0,7

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,38 xG 1,26

62% Possession 38%

22 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	30	25	4	1	+47	+37.4	79
2	Benfica	30	21	9	0	+44	+35.2	72
3	Sp Lisbon	29	22	5	2	+55	+38.2	71
4	Sp Braga	30	16	8	6	+29	+24.0	56
5	Famalicao	30	13	9	8	+11	+9.8	48
6	Gil Vicente	30	12	10	8	+13	+10.2	46
7	Guimaraes	30	11	6	13	-7	-3.6	39
8	Moreirense	30	11	6	13	-8	-15.9	39
9	Alverca	31	10	8	13	-15	-1.5	38
10	Estoril	30	10	7	13	+0	-9.6	37
11	Arouca	31	10	5	16	-21	-18.4	35
12	Rio Ave	30	8	10	12	-17	-16.2	34
13	Santa Clara	30	7	8	15	-11	-2.6	29
14	Nacional	30	7	7	16	-9	-12.1	28
15	Estrela	30	6	10	14	-16	-10.1	28
16	Casa Pia	30	5	11	14	-25	-24.2	26
17	Tondela	29	4	9	16	-27	-13.0	21
18	AVS	30	1	10	19	-43	-27.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	12	3	0	+25	+21.5	39
2	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+25	+22.5	35
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+33	+23.8	34
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+16	+14.0	28
5	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
6	Gil Vicente	15	8	3	4	+12	+6.5	27
7	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
8	Alverca	16	7	4	5	-5	+6.1	25
9	Estoril	15	6	5	4	+6	-4.8	23
10	Moreirense	15	7	2	6	-2	-7.1	23
11	Arouca	15	6	3	6	-5	-5.9	21
12	Nacional	15	5	2	8	-1	-3.8	17
13	Estrela	15	4	5	6	-2	+2.0	17
14	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	+1.6	17
15	Casa Pia	15	2	8	5	-7	-10.5	14
16	Rio Ave	15	3	5	7	-9	-3.1	14
17	Tondela	15	1	7	7	-8	-4.8	10
18	AVS	15	1	5	9	-14	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+22	+15.9	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+22	+14.4	37
3	Benfica	15	11	4	0	+19	+12.7	37
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+13	+9.9	28
5	Famalicao	15	5	6	4	-3	+0.1	21
6	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-8	-13.1	20
7	Gil Vicente	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.6	19
8	Moreirense	15	4	4	7	-6	-8.8	16
9	Estoril	15	4	2	9	-6	-4.8	14
10	Guimaraes	15	4	2	9	-13	-2.6	14
11	Arouca	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
12	Alverca	15	3	4	8	-10	-7.6	13
13	Santa Clara	15	2	6	7	-8	-4.2	12
14	Casa Pia	15	3	3	9	-18	-13.7	12
15	Nacional	15	2	5	8	-8	-8.3	11
16	Estrela	15	2	5	8	-14	-12.1	11
17	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-19	-8.2	11
18	AVS	15	0	5	10	-29	-16.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.