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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Heerenveen

S S U S T

2–1

Full-time

For Sittard

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen For Sittard

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

41%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

76%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

69%

77%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,41 xG 0,85

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heerenveen 8. · For Sittard 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	+49	+31.0	77
2	Feyenoord	31	17	7	7	+23	+25.4	58
3	Nijmegen	30	15	9	6	+24	+9.7	54
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	+19	+26.8	53
5	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	+7	+19.3	49
6	Ajax	29	12	12	5	+18	+7.9	48
7	Utrecht	29	12	7	10	+13	+2.4	43
8	Heerenveen	29	12	7	10	+3	+8.6	43
9	Groningen	30	12	6	12	+5	+12.2	42
10	Sparta Rotterdam	31	12	6	13	-17	-5.6	42
11	Go Ahead Eagles	31	8	13	10	+5	-17.2	37
12	For Sittard	30	10	6	14	-11	-14.0	36
13	Zwolle	31	8	10	13	-25	-17.6	34
14	Telstar	31	7	9	15	-10	-11.4	30
15	Volendam	30	7	7	16	-19	-24.2	28
16	Excelsior	30	7	7	16	-20	-17.7	28
17	NAC Breda	30	5	10	15	-21	-9.5	25
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	-43	-26.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	2	2	+28	+18.5	38
2	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+16	+18.7	35
3	AZ Alkmaar	15	8	5	2	+13	+14.4	29
4	Nijmegen	15	8	4	3	+15	+10.0	28
5	Twente	15	8	4	3	+9	+15.8	28
6	Ajax	14	8	3	3	+14	+13.4	27
7	Utrecht	14	8	2	4	+14	+7.3	26
8	Heerenveen	15	7	5	3	+8	+11.6	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	7	3	+13	+2.8	25
10	Zwolle	15	7	4	4	+1	+0.7	25
11	Volendam	15	6	5	4	+4	-3.3	23
12	Groningen	15	6	4	5	+9	+7.5	22
13	For Sittard	15	6	4	5	-1	-0.0	22
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	4	5	-5	+0.4	22
15	Telstar	16	4	5	7	+0	-0.8	17
16	NAC Breda	15	4	5	6	-3	+2.6	17
17	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-10	-6.3	15
18	Excelsior	15	4	2	9	-7	-4.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	0	2	+21	+12.5	39
2	Nijmegen	15	7	5	3	+9	-0.3	26
3	Twente	15	6	7	2	+10	+11.0	25
4	Feyenoord	15	6	5	4	+7	+6.7	23
5	Ajax	15	4	9	2	+4	-5.5	21
6	Groningen	15	6	2	7	-4	+4.6	20
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	2	8	-6	+4.9	20
8	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-12	-6.0	20
9	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-1	-4.9	17
10	Heerenveen	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.0	17
11	For Sittard	15	4	2	9	-10	-14.0	14
12	Excelsior	15	3	5	7	-13	-12.8	14
13	Telstar	15	3	4	8	-10	-10.6	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	15	2	6	7	-8	-20.0	12
15	Zwolle	16	1	6	9	-26	-18.3	9
16	NAC Breda	15	1	5	9	-18	-12.1	8
17	Volendam	15	1	2	12	-23	-20.8	5
18	Heracles	15	1	1	13	-33	-19.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.