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Bundesliga

Referee: J Semler

Tirol

T S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Ried

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tirol Ried

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 36%

32%

39%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 61%

64%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,68 xG 0,61

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tirol 9. · Ried 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	28	14	6	8	+12	+7.9	48
2	Salzburg	28	13	8	7	+19	+9.7	47
3	LASK	28	13	7	8	+4	+10.1	46
4	SK Rapid	28	11	8	9	+0	-0.4	41
5	Austria Vienna	28	12	4	12	-5	-0.0	40
6	Hartberg	28	9	12	7	+5	-11.4	39
7	Ried	28	11	6	11	-2	+0.1	39
8	Altach	29	9	11	9	-2	-6.4	38
9	Tirol	28	9	9	10	-7	+1.6	36
10	Grazer AK	28	7	9	12	-9	-2.1	30
11	Wolfsberger AC	28	7	8	13	-8	-14.5	29
12	BW Linz	29	8	4	17	-7	+5.4	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	14	7	6	1	+7	+1.0	27
2	LASK	14	8	3	3	+6	+9.1	27
3	Ried	14	7	3	4	+2	+2.8	24
4	BW Linz	15	7	1	7	+8	+7.3	22
5	Tirol	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.2	22
6	Salzburg	14	6	3	5	+8	+5.1	21
7	Grazer AK	14	5	6	3	+2	+1.7	21
8	SK Rapid	14	6	2	6	+0	-0.6	20
9	Sturm Graz	14	5	4	5	-2	+3.6	19
10	Wolfsberger AC	14	4	6	4	+2	-3.6	18
11	Austria Vienna	14	5	3	6	-6	+0.8	18
12	Hartberg	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	14	9	2	3	+14	+4.3	29
2	Salzburg	14	7	5	2	+11	+4.7	26
3	Hartberg	14	5	7	2	+5	-8.4	22
4	Austria Vienna	14	7	1	6	+1	-0.8	22
5	SK Rapid	14	5	6	3	+0	+0.2	21
6	LASK	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.0	19
7	Ried	14	4	3	7	-4	-2.6	15
8	Tirol	14	3	5	6	-9	-1.5	14
9	Altach	15	2	5	8	-9	-7.4	11
10	Wolfsberger AC	14	3	2	9	-10	-10.9	11
11	Grazer AK	14	2	3	9	-11	-3.8	9
12	BW Linz	14	1	3	10	-15	-1.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.