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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Estoril

T U T T T

0–0

Full-time

Arouca

S S S T S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,86 xG 1,07

47% Possession 53%

18 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 17. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.4	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	+4.3	13
3	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.5	11
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+11	+6.7	10
5	Arouca	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.5	9
6	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.5	7
8	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	+0.1	7
9	Estrela	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.8	6
10	Academico Viseu	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
11	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.3	4
12	Guimaraes	5	1	1	3	-2	+4.1	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.3	4
14	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	-0.9	3
15	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	-9	-4.5	3
16	Alverca	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.1	2
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Casa Pia	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.5	6
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.0	4
7	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.6	4
8	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
9	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
10	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
12	Alverca	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
13	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
16	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+10	+2.7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
3	Academico Viseu	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
9	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
10	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
12	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
15	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
17	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
18	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Apr -26 Arouca – Estoril 3–2 7. Nov -25 Estoril – Arouca 4–3 16. Mar -25 Arouca – Estoril 1–1 26. Oct -24 Estoril – Arouca 4–1 20. Jan -24 Estoril – Arouca 1–2

Match report

Estoril Arouca

Antef Tsoungui 🟨

30′

Francisco Reis Ferreira 🟨

45′

🔁 Pedro Santos

↦ Espen van Ee

Jordan Arnolin 🔁

↦ Antef Tsoungui

45′

Half-time 0–0

Jordan Arnolin 🟨

71′

João Carvalho 🟨

72′

André Tiago Ramos das Neves 🔁

↦ Fabrício Garcia

75′

🔁 Mateo Flores

↦ Pablo Gozálbez

75′

🔁 Dylan Nandín

↦ Iván Barbero

Pedro Carvalho 🔁

↦ Ricard Sanchez Sendra

79′

Rafik Guitane 🔁

↦ André Lacximicant

79′

Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Estoril

4-2-3-1

Joel Robles G

Ricard Sánchez D

Ferro D

Isma Sierra D

Fernando Medrano D

J. Holsgrove M

A. Tsoungui M

Fabrício Garcia M

João Carvalho M

André Lacximicant M

Y. Begraoui F

Bench (11)

17 Peixinho

19 Tiago Parreira Parente

99 R. Guitane

9 A. Camblan

90 Tiago Brito

35 S. Amissah

80 Luís Maria Viegas Abreu Campos Gomes

16 M. Turk

43 fletcher lowe

42 J. Arnolin

22 Pedro Carvalho

Coach: Vasco Matos

Arouca

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

2,24

🔒

1xBet 2,66 Pinnacle 2,63 Marathonbet 2,60 Bet365 2,55 Betano 2,55 Dafabet 2,55 Superbet 2,55 Betfair 2,50 William Hill 2,50 10Bet 2,48 SBO 2,45 BetVictor 2,45 Unibet 2,33

U ✓

3,37

🔒

1xBet 3,47 10Bet 3,45 Dafabet 3,45 Pinnacle 3,42 Bet365 3,40 Betano 3,40 Unibet 3,40 Superbet 3,40 Betfair 3,30 BetVictor 3,30 Marathonbet 3,28 William Hill 3,25 SBO 3,19

2,94

🔒

Unibet 2,95 Pinnacle 2,78 Betano 2,75 Betfair 2,75 Dafabet 2,75 Superbet 2,75 1xBet 2,72 Bet365 2,70 10Bet 2,65 William Hill 2,62 Marathonbet 2,61 BetVictor 2,60 SBO 2,57

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,25

🔒