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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Real Madrid

S T S S S

4–0

Full-time

Osasuna

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Osasuna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

88%

38%

Points per game

2,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,46 xG 0,46

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Osasuna 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	9	7	1	1	+8	+3.6	22
2	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+10	+5.7	21
3	Barcelona	8	6	2	0	+11	+9.7	20
4	Ath Bilbao	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.1	17
5	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+11	+5.6	16
6	Sociedad	8	4	3	1	+6	+0.6	15
7	Betis	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.2	12
8	Vallecano	8	3	3	2	-2	+1.1	12
9	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.6	10
10	Valencia	8	3	1	4	-1	-0.2	10
11	Getafe	8	2	3	3	-3	-2.3	9
12	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-4	-5.4	9
13	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.7	8
14	Las Palmas	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.8	8
15	Sevilla	7	2	1	4	+1	-2.4	7
16	Mallorca	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.9	7
17	Alaves	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.2	7
18	Celta	8	1	2	5	-5	-2.9	5
19	Granada	8	1	2	5	-8	-6.0	5
20	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-13	-0.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.3	12
2	Sociedad	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.1	11
3	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.7	10
4	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
5	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+3.8	9
6	Girona	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.3	9
7	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
8	Cadiz	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.0	8
9	Getafe	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
10	Las Palmas	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.1	8
11	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.8	6
12	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
13	Alaves	4	2	0	2	-2	+1.6	6
14	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.4	4
16	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-2	-2.2	3
17	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.9	2
18	Almeria	5	0	2	3	-5	+2.1	2
19	Celta	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.7	1
20	Osasuna	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.8	12
3	Osasuna	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.2	9
4	Barcelona	4	2	2	0	+2	+4.5	8
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.0	7
6	Vallecano	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
9	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.0	5
10	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
11	Celta	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.2	4
12	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-3	-3.0	4
13	Betis	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.8	4
14	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
15	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
16	Granada	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.6	1
17	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.0	1
18	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.5	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.0	1
20	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.