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Europa League
Referee: M Mariani
Ajax
U S T U T
3–3
Full-time
Marseille
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,62 xG 2,37
52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 25
5 Shots on target 12
2 Blocked shots 5
9 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Marseille
1–0 Carlos Forbs ⚽
9′
2–0 S. Berghuis ⚽
B. Sosa
20′
Steven Berghuis 🟨
22′
23′
⚽ J. Clauss 2–1
A. Harit
38′
⚽ P. Aubameyang 2–2
A. Harit
Half-time 2–2
S. Vos 🔁
↦ B. Tahirović
46′
3–2 K. Taylor ⚽
Carlos Forbs
52′
Silvano Vos 🟨
55′
65′
🔁 Vítinha
↦ G. Kondogbia
65′
🔁 J. Veretout
↦ I. Ndiaye
78′
⚽ P. Aubameyang 3–3
J. Veretout
79′
🔁 F. Mughe
↦ A. Harit
79′
🔁 J. Correa
↦ P. Aubameyang
80′
🔁 L. Balerdi
↦ Renan Lodi
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ B. Brobbey
85′
B. van den Boomen 🔁
↦ S. Berghuis
85′
Silvano Vos 🟨
91′
Silvano Vos 🟥
91′
G. Ávila 🔁
↦ Carlos Forbs
93′
J. Medić 🔁
↦ S. Bergwijn
93′
97′
🟨 Samuel Gigot
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
12 J. Gorter G
3 A. Gaaei D
37 J. Šutalo D
4 J. Hato D
25 B. Sosa D
23 S. Berghuis M
33 B. Tahirović M
8 K. Taylor M
11 Carlos Forbs F
9 B. Brobbey F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (12)
24 S. Vos
10 C. Akpom
21 B. van den Boomen
30 G. Ávila
18 J. Medić
16 S. Mannsverk
19 G. Mikautadze
17 A. Salah-Eddine
39 M. Godts
22 R. Pasveer
2 D. Rensch
40 D. Ramaj

Coach: M. Steijn

Marseille

16 Pau López G
7 J. Clauss D
4 S. Gigot D
99 C. Mbemba D
12 Renan Lodi D
8 A. Ounahi M
21 V. Rongier M
19 G. Kondogbia M
29 I. Ndiaye F
10 P. Aubameyang F
11 A. Harit F
Bench (11)
9 Vítinha
27 J. Veretout
24 F. Mughe
20 J. Correa
5 L. Balerdi
37 E. Soglo
36 Rubén Blanco
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
18 B. Meïté
62 A. Murillo
34 B. Nadir

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.