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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Excelsior

T U S T S

2–2

Full-time

Ajax

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

7,0

5,0

Scored

4,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,46 xG 3,09

32% Possession 68%

13 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 10

0 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 6. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
2	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Twente	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.0	3
5	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
7	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
9	Heracles	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.7	3
10	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
11	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
13	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
14	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
15	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.0	0
16	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
17	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
18	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
2	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.0	3
4	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
5	Heracles	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
6	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
7	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
8	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
9	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
10	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Twente	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
2	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
3	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
4	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	For Sittard	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
6	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
7	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.0	0
8	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
9	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
10	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.