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Europa League
Referee: Ondrej Berka
Ludogorets
T T S U T
1–0
Full-time
Nice
U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,8
3,7
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/7 matches
Win Ø 24%
33%
14%
Points per game
1,1
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 82%
78%
86%
Both score Ø 75%
78%
71%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,66 xG 1,19
49% Possession 51%
19 Shots 19
8 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 8
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ludogorets Nice
Dinis Almeida 🟨
24′
1–0 P. Stanic ⚽
Caio Vidal
42′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 K. Boudache
↦ T. Gouveia
46′
🔁 S. Abdul Samed
↦ D. Coulibaly
I. Chochev 🔁
↦ E. Bile
66′
66′
🔁 M. Brignone
↦ I. Jansson
79′
🔁 M. Youssouf
↦ A. Mendy
79′
🔁 K. Ali
↦ T. Ndombele
J. Andersson 🔁
↦ Caio Vidal
80′
B. Tekpetey 🔁
↦ Erick Marcus
80′
87′
🟨 Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga
F. Kaloc 🔁
↦ P. Stanic
91′
94′
🟨 Kaïl Boudache
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1
39 H. Bonmann G
17 Son D
24 O. Verdon D
4 D. Almeida D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
30 Pedro Naressi M
23 D. Duarte M
11 Caio Vidal M
14 P. Stanic M
77 Erick Marcus M
29 E. Bile F
Bench (10)
1 S. Padt
67 D. Hristov
2 J. Andersson
10 M. Machado
18 I. Chochev
26 F. Kaloc
37 B. Tekpetey
42 S. Shishkov
55 I. Nachmias
99 S. Ivanov

Coach: Per-Mathias Hogmo

Nice

4-2-3-1
80 Y. Diouf G
20 T. Louchet D
33 A. Mendy D
28 J. Bah D
36 B. Mantsounga D
41 E. Pereira M
39 D. Coulibaly M
47 T. Gouveia M
22 T. Ndombele M
21 I. Jansson M
90 Kevin F
Bench (9)
30 B. Zelazowski
50 T. Bruyere
32 K. Boudache
43 M. Youssouf
45 M. Brignone
48 L. Monteiro
52 K. Ali
53 Y. Sofikitis
99 S. Abdul Samed

Coach: Claude Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.