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Europa League
Referee: Balazs Berke
Ludogorets
S S T T T
3–2
Full-time
Celta
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets Celta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,7
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 6/4 matches
Win Ø 54%
33%
75%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 79%
83%
75%
Average goals
3,7
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,60 xG 2,00
43% Possession 57%
7 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ludogorets Celta
1–0 P. Stanic ⚽
11′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Roman
↦ D. Rodriguez
46′
🔁 P. Duran
↦ F. Jutgla
2–0 P. Stanic ⚽
O. Verdon
49′
Aguibou Camara 🟨
53′
58′
🟨 Miguel Román
58′
🔁 I. Aspas
↦ B. Iglesias
58′
🔁 B. Zaragoza
↦ A. Arcos
I. Chochev 🔁
↦ A. Camara
59′
Caio Vidal ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
61′
3–0 P. Stanic ⚽
62′
64′
🟨 Yoel Lago
67′
🔁 C. Starfelt
↦ Y. Lago
70′
⚽ P. Duran 3–1
B. Zaragoza
F. Kaloc 🔁
↦ Pedro Naressi
75′
Erick Marcus 🔁
↦ A. Nedyalkov
75′
E. Bile 🔁
↦ Caio Vidal
85′
90′
⚽ J. El Abdellaoui 3–2
B. Zaragoza
95′
🟨 Iago Aspas
Hendrik Bonmann 🟨
97′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Ludogorets

39 H. Bonmann G
17 Son D
24 O. Verdon D
4 D. Almeida D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
30 Pedro Naressi M
23 D. Duarte M
11 Caio Vidal M
20 A. Camara M
82 I. Yordanov M
14 P. Stanic F
Bench (11)
1 S. Padt
67 D. Hristov
10 M. Machado
18 I. Chochev
26 F. Kaloc
29 E. Bile
37 B. Tekpetey
42 S. Shishkov
55 I. Nachmias
77 Erick Marcus
80 M. Stefanov

Celta

4-4-2
1 I. Villar G
3 O. Mingueza D
29 Y. Lago D
12 M. Fernandez D
21 M. Ristic D
39 J. El Abdellaoui M
14 D. Rodriguez M
6 I. Moriba M
28 A. Arcos M
9 F. Jutgla F
7 B. Iglesias F
Bench (12)
13 I. Radu
2 C. Starfelt
5 S. Carreira
10 I. Aspas
15 B. Zaragoza
16 M. Roman
18 P. Duran
19 W. Swedberg
20 M. Alonso
22 H. Sotelo
23 H. Alvarez
32 J. Rodriguez

Coach: Claudio Giráldez González

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.