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Conference League
Referee: D Fuxman
Besiktas
T U S T S
2–3
Full-time
Lugano
T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Besiktas Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 43%
86%
0%
Points per game
2,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 29%
57%
0%
Both score Ø 36%
71%
0%
Average goals
3,0
0,0
Scored
2,1
0,0
Conceded
0,9
0,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,33 xG 1,93
47% Possession 53%
6 Shots 22
4 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Besiktas Lugano
1–0 V. Aboubakar ⚽
R. Ghezzal
38′
Valentin Rosier 🟨
43′
43′
🟨 Mattia Bottani
Half-time 1–0
M. Rashica 🔁
↦ C. Tosun
46′
2–0 V. Aboubakar ⚽
52′
Valentin Rosier 🟨
61′
Valentin Rosier 🟥
61′
J. Muleka 🔁
↦ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
66′
66′
🔁 I. Aliseda
↦ J. Sabbatini
66′
🔁 A. Arigoni
↦ A. Hajdari
66′
🔁 R. Macek
↦ U. Bislimi
O. Bulut 🔁
↦ R. Ghezzal
67′
74′
🔁 S. Vladi
↦ K. Hajrizi
74′
🔁 Y. Cimignani
↦ J. Espinoza
B. Zaynutdinov 🔁
↦ V. Aboubakar
78′
81′
⚽ I. Aliseda 2–1
J. Onana 🔁
↦ S. Uçan
82′
86′
⚽ S. Vladi 2–2
A. Arigoni
90′
⚽ E. Bailly 3–2
own goal
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Besiktas

4-1-4-1
1 E. Destanoğlu G
24 V. Rosier D
30 E. Bailly D
6 O. Colley D
26 A. Masuaku D
19 A. Hadžiahmetović M
18 R. Ghezzal M
8 S. Uçan M
15 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain M
9 C. Tosun M
10 V. Aboubakar F
Bench (12)
11 M. Rashica
40 J. Muleka
4 O. Bulut
22 B. Zaynutdinov
71 J. Onana
90 S. Kılıçsoy
7 A. Rebić
20 N. Uysal
12 D. Amartey
21 E. Tıknaz
75 T. Bingöl
97 U. Yuvakuran

Coach: Ş. Güneş

Lugano

4-3-3
1 A. Saipi G
6 J. Espinoza D
17 L. Mai D
4 K. Hajrizi D
5 A. Hajdari D
25 U. Bislimi M
16 A. Grgić M
14 J. Sabbatini M
11 R. Steffen F
9 Ž. Celar F
10 M. Bottani F
Bench (11)
31 I. Aliseda
34 A. Arigoni
7 R. Macek
19 S. Vladi
21 Y. Cimignani
26 Martim Marques
27 B. Babic
22 A. El Wafi
90 S. Deana
29 H. Mahmoud
99 D. Mina

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.