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Europa League
Referee: M Balakin
Marseille
U U U T T
2–2
Full-time
Brighton
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,2
4,2
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,8
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
6,0
5,0
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
3,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,31 xG 2,62
46% Possession 54%
14 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Marseille Brighton
1–0 C. Mbemba ⚽
J. Clauss
19′
2–0 J. Veretout ⚽
A. Harit
20′
25′
ℹ️ Jan Paul van Hecke
VAR: Penalty cancelled
Half-time 2–0
A. Ounahi 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
51′
54′
⚽ P. Groß 2–1
K. Mitoma
55′
🟨 Pascal Groß
Vítinha 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
62′
I. Sarr 🔁
↦ J. Correa
62′
66′
🔁 João Pedro
↦ Ansu Fati
67′
🔁 B. Gilmour
↦ Mahmoud Dahoud
76′
🔁 S. Adingra
↦ S. March
77′
🔁 E. Ferguson
↦ D. Welbeck
Renan Lodi 🔁
↦ I. Ndiaye
79′
83′
🟨 Lewis Dunk
Ismaïla Sarr 🟨
84′
84′
🟨 Joël Veltman
Jonathan Clauss 🟨
87′
88′
⚽ João Pedro 2–2
Leonardo Balerdi 🟨
89′
95′
🟨 Evan Ferguson
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Marseille

4-3-3
16 Pau López G
7 J. Clauss D
99 C. Mbemba D
5 L. Balerdi D
62 A. Murillo D
11 A. Harit M
21 V. Rongier M
27 J. Veretout M
29 I. Ndiaye F
10 P. Aubameyang F
20 J. Correa F
Bench (11)
8 A. Ounahi
9 Vítinha
23 I. Sarr
12 Renan Lodi
33 A. Tunkadi
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
36 Rubén Blanco
34 B. Nadir
37 E. Soglo
18 B. Meïté
42 A. Caprice

Coach: G. Gattuso

Brighton

4-2-3-1
23 J. Steele G
34 J. Veltman D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
2 T. Lamptey D
13 P. Groß M
8 Mahmoud Dahoud M
7 S. March M
31 Ansu Fati M
22 K. Mitoma M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (11)
9 João Pedro
11 B. Gilmour
24 S. Adingra
28 E. Ferguson
1 B. Verbruggen
40 F. Buonanotte
38 T. McGill
4 A. Webster
41 J. Hinshelwood
3 Igor Julio
20 C. Baleba

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Balakin · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.