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Super League

Referee: L Fähndrich

Luzern

T T U U S

3–2

Full-time

Lugano

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 58%

40%

75%

Points per game

1,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

40%

75%

Both score Ø 43%

60%

25%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,43 xG 2,05

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

19 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Luzern 5. · Lugano 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Zurich	5	3	2	0	+8	–	11
2	Young Boys	5	3	2	0	+5	+0.7	11
3	St. Gallen	6	3	2	1	+2	+1.9	11
4	Lugano	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.6	9
5	Luzern	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.7	8
6	Winterthur	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.3	8
7	Yverdon	6	2	2	2	-3	-3.1	8
8	Servette	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.3	6
9	Grasshoppers	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.9	4
10	Lausanne	6	1	1	4	-5	+1.4	4
11	Lausanne Ouchy	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.3	4
12	Basel	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.7	9
2	Zurich	3	2	1	0	+5	–	7
3	Lugano	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.4	6
4	Young Boys	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.1	6
5	Winterthur	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.5	5
6	Yverdon	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
7	Luzern	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
8	Lausanne Ouchy	4	1	1	2	-5	+0.0	4
9	Basel	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.1	3
10	Grasshoppers	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.3	3
11	Servette	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.6	2
12	Lausanne	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.4	5
2	Zurich	2	1	1	0	+3	–	4
3	Luzern	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.3	4
4	Servette	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.6	4
5	Yverdon	4	1	1	2	-6	-2.9	4
6	Lugano	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
7	Lausanne	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.6	3
8	Winterthur	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
9	St. Gallen	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.2	2
10	Grasshoppers	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
11	Lausanne Ouchy	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
12	Basel	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.