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Europa League
Referee: M Jug
AEK
U S S S T
1–1
Full-time
Ajax
T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
5,0
4,0
Scored
3,0
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,27 xG 1,85
48% Possession 52%
23 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 7
7 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 4
3 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 10
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

AEK Ajax
30′
⚽ S. Bergwijn 0–1
Domagoj Vida 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–1
Orbelín Pineda 🟨
52′
56′
🟨 Brian Brobbey
61′
🟨 Josip Šutalo
L. Rota 🔁
↦ D. Sidibé
67′
P. Mantalos 🔁
↦ E. Ponce
67′
J. Jønsson 🔁
↦ O. Pineda
67′
N. Eliasson 🔁
↦ E. Hajisafi
74′
74′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ B. Brobbey
1–1 D. Vida ⚽
N. Amrabat
74′
M. Mohammadi 🔁
↦ M. Gaćinović
79′
84′
🔁 B. van den Boomen
↦ B. Tahirović
84′
🔁 A. van Axel Dongen
↦ Carlos Forbs
Sergio Araujo 🟨
89′
Nordin Amrabat 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

AEK

4-3-1-2
1 C. Stanković G
29 D. Sidibé D
21 D. Vida D
2 H. Moukoudi D
28 E. Hajisafi D
5 N. Amrabat M
4 D. Szymański M
8 M. Gaćinović M
13 O. Pineda M
14 E. Ponce F
11 S. Araújo F
Bench (10)
12 L. Rota
20 P. Mantalos
6 J. Jønsson
19 N. Eliasson
3 M. Mohammadi
24 G. Mitoglou
99 G. Theocharis
25 K. Galanopoulos
30 G. Athanasiadis
70 R. Pizarro

Coach: M. Almeyda

Ajax

4-3-3
12 J. Gorter G
2 D. Rensch D
37 J. Šutalo D
30 G. Ávila D
4 J. Hato D
23 S. Berghuis M
33 B. Tahirović M
8 K. Taylor M
11 Carlos Forbs F
9 B. Brobbey F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (12)
10 C. Akpom
21 B. van den Boomen
27 A. van Axel Dongen
39 M. Godts
17 A. Salah-Eddine
3 A. Gaaei
38 K. Hlynsson
22 R. Pasveer
25 B. Sosa
40 D. Ramaj
18 J. Medić
19 G. Mikautadze

Coach: M. Steijn

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Jug · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.