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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Lecce

U U T T T

0–6

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

14%

71%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

0,4

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,20 xG 2,24

39% Possession 61%

5 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 11

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Fiorentina 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	1	1	+10	+5.4	19
2	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+10	+7.0	16
3	Milan	8	4	2	2	+7	+6.7	14
4	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.7	14
5	Lazio	8	4	1	3	+2	+3.3	13
6	Udinese	8	4	1	3	-1	-4.6	13
7	Torino	7	3	2	2	+1	-3.3	11
8	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+3	+6.3	10
9	Roma	7	2	4	1	+3	+1.2	10
10	Fiorentina	7	2	4	1	+1	+2.1	10
11	Empoli	8	2	4	2	+1	-4.0	10
12	Verona	7	3	0	4	+0	-1.6	9
13	Bologna	8	1	6	1	-2	-0.6	9
14	Como	8	2	3	3	-4	-0.1	9
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-2	-1.6	7
16	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.3	6
17	Genoa	8	1	3	4	-10	-7.1	6
18	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.5	5
19	Monza	7	0	4	3	-4	-4.6	4
20	Venezia	7	1	1	5	-7	-4.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	+4.7	12
2	Milan	4	3	1	0	+8	+5.0	10
3	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.5	10
4	Inter	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.0	9
5	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.7	9
6	Udinese	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.2	9
7	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.6	8
8	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+3.4	6
9	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.5	6
10	Verona	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
11	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
12	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
13	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
14	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
15	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
16	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
17	Empoli	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3
19	Monza	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
20	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.7	7
3	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
4	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.0	7
5	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
6	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	-1.3	5
7	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.2	4
8	Roma	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
9	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
10	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
11	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.3	4
12	Como	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.0	4
13	Verona	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.5	3
14	Parma	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.6	3
15	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.2	3
16	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-5	-3.8	3
17	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
18	Monza	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
19	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.